29694 is Major Trend Reversal Point for Bank Nifty Between 28500-32500

| May 23, 2019

Bank Nifty opened gap up at 30962, bounced further by more than 700 points to registered new all high 31705 but didn’t sustain at higher level and declined back again by more than 1400 points to register day’s low 30292 and finally closed 117 points down at 30409.

Yesterday, bounce towards 31138-32754 was expected but 32754 was maximum upper end. 30008 was the downside breakeven point. Later updates were sent by WhatsApp broadcast which worked better.

Bank Nifty bounced till 31705 and declined back to enter in fresh major support range again. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 31705.

23%-38% retracement of wave (C or 3) is placed at 30462-29694 which is the major support and 29694 is the major downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty already entered in support range. We can think of any bigger downside reversal after breaking below 29694 only.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from all time high 31705 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from new all time high 31705.

It seems wave (a or 1) may be completed at 30937, (b or 2) may be completed at 31074 as Irregular correction and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave (i) may be completed at 30638, wave (ii) may be completed at 30861 and wave (iii) may be completed at 30292 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 30476-30590 which is immediate resistance range with 30590 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30590 for more than 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 31074 and above.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty is positive for short/Medium term with 30462-29694 as major support range. We can think of any bigger downward reversal after breaking below 29694 only.

26694 is a major breakeven point, Bank Nifty can either bounce further by 2851-4613 points from 30462-29694 Or if it breaks lower below 26694 then further decline towards 28500-26441 is possible. Otherwise, we need to look for any change by observing internal patterns.

Very Short term/Intraday, 30476-30590 is the immediate resistance with 30590 as immediate upside breakeven point and Bank Nifty can give one more decline of 400-600 points from 30476-30590. But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30590 for more than 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 31074 and above.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

30200-29694 is low risk buying range for positional longs and upside target will be 2851-4613 points if Bank Nifty bounces without breaking below 29694. Further we need to observe internal waves for confirmation. Pattern will change if Bank Nifty stay above 30590 for more than 15 minutes, we need to look at pattern again in this case.

Positional selling can be done after break below 29694 only for downside targets 28500-26441 but entry levels and stoploss for selling can be calculated after breakdown only.

30476-30590 is low risk selling for Intraday for 400-600 points decline, low risk buying can be done after Ban Nifty staying above 30590 for 15 minutes for upside targets 31074. (entry levels and stoploss for buying can be calculated after breakout only)

These are general low risk trading conditions based on current pattern. Any change in trend, or pattern or important levels will be notified during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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