Bank Nifty Analysis and Trading Strategy for 22 Aug 2019

| August 21, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 28021 and bounced further to register day’s high 28098 but declined back by more than 400 points to register day’s low 27666 and closed 263 points down at 27719.

Yesterday, 28075 was immediate upside breakeven point and Bank Nifty was expected to decline towards 27683-27392 without breaking much higher above 28075.

Trading strategy was to Sell Bank Nifty in 28046-28075 range using exact stoploss of 28121 expecting decline towards 27683-27392 in coming sessions. Bank Nifty entered in selling range 28046-28075, registered high 28098 and decline back to register low 27666. Further updates fresh levels were sent during market hour (by whatsapp). Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering all time move of Bank Nifty from life time low 3314. We are going to analyze life time move of Bank Nifty using all required time frames. First we need to start from monthly chart.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on Monthly Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on Monthly Chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after life time low 3314 which is the start of major wave cycle. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems major wave (1) completed from 3314-13303, (2) completed from 13303-8866 as Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be in progress.

Within major wave (3), it seems inner wave (i) completed from 8866-20907, (ii) may be completed from 20907-13407 and wave (iii) may be completed from 13407-31783 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 27446-24763. So, 27446-24763 is major support and 24763 is major downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty is in long term positive zone as long as trading above 24763. Nifty already entered in major support 27446-24763.

Within wave (iii), it seems inner wave [1] completed from 13407-20575, [2] may be completed from 20575-17606, [3] may be completed from 17606-27652, [4] may be completed from 27652-24240 as Irregular Correction and [5] may be completed from 24240-31783 or still in progress.

Or may be wave [4] is still in progress as big Irregular Correction. We need to analyze the decline started from all time high 31783 on lowest possible time frame to check its pattern.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on 5 Hourly Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on 5 Hourly Chart

This is 5 hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline from all time high 31783 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave completed from 31783-30623 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 31699 may be wave (B or 2) as Irregular Correction and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (C or 3), It seems wave (i) may be completed at 30346, wave (ii) may be completed at 30870, wave (iii) may be completed at 27392, wave (iv) may be completed at 28602 and wave (v) may be in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 26971-25964 which is the minimum target range for completion of wave (v) if wave completed at 28602 is really wave (iv).

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave (v) started from 28602 on lowest possible time frame to check its pattern.

Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute Chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute Chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline from 28602 which I marked as start of wave (v) on 05 hourly chart.

It seems wave completed from 28602-27683 may be wave [A or 1], wave [B or 2] may be completed at 28468 and wave [C or 3] may be in progress from 28468. Minimum 100%-123% projection for wave [C or 3] is placed at 27549-27332, so 27549-27332 is minimum expected range for completion of wave [C or 3].

Within [C or 3], it seems inner wave (i), (ii), (iii), (iv) is completed and (v) may be in progress. Wave (v) already achieved 61% projection after breaking below 27709 whereas next 100% projection is placed at 27469 which may or may not be achieved.

23%-38% retracement progress of wave (v) is placed at 27767-27831. So, 27767-27831 is immediate resistance and 27831 is immediate upside breakeven point.  Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 27831 can result in further bounce towards 28098 otherwise further decline towards 27549-27332 is on the cards.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

For long term, Bank Nifty is in positive zone with 27446-24763 as major support. But this is a big support range and is not suitable for trading, so we will concentrate on Support/Resistance based on internal patterns.

For Intraday/Very Short Term,  overall Bank Nifty is in negative zone and has possibility to decline below 27392. 27767-27832 is immediate/Intraday resistance and 27549-27332 is immediate downside target range.

27831 is immediate upside breakeven point and Bank Nifty if stay above 27831 for 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 28098. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Short Term Trading strategy would be to “Sell on Rise” whenever getting opportunity as long as Bank Nifty

trading below 28602.

Very short term/Intraday, Bank Nifty can be sold if get in 27767-27831 range using stoploss of 27871 (some points above 27831) expecting immediate targets 27549-27332.

But Puts if bought today can be hold without stoploss because overall decline below 27392 is expected very soon but internal pattern can give unexpected up/down swings (only for Live Update Subscribers).

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Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 27831 can result in further bounce towards 28098 but any buying trade can be decided during market hours only after confirming with the pattern of breakout. Otherwise it is safe to avoid buying in current scenario.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be

updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

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Category: Bank Nifty

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