Bank Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Important levels for 03 August 2020

| August 2, 2020

Bank Nifty opened high at 21730, declined sharply just after opening to register low 21375 and bounced back again to registers day’s fresh high 21806 followed by decline till 21436 and closed 06 points down at 21640.

Friday, 21738-21836 was immediate resistance range and 21836 was immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was in negative zone as long as trading below 21836 and had possibility to decline towards 21412-20835.

Bank Nifty declined from low risk selling range 21738-21836 to achieve minimum target 21412 but didn’t give chance to sell due to sharp decline just after opening. Later 21738-21836 was still immediate resistance range and same was updated during live market hours through whatsapp. Bank Nifty again entered in resistance range 21738-21836 and declined back again till 21436 and finally closed at 21640. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering decline started from all time high 32613 which I am analyzing independently in my last analysis report Bank Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Important levels on All Time Frame Charts

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline after all time high 32613 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave [1] completed at 30209, wave [2] may be completed at 31649 as big Irregular Correction, wave [3] may be completed at 21351, wave [4] may be completed at 25670 and wave [5] may be completed at 16116.

This impulse completed from 32613-16116 can be wave [A] or ([C] of Irregular Correction).

From low 16116, It seems a corrective wave (A) may be completed at 21462, wave (B) may be completed at 17105 as Irregular correction and wave (C) may be completed at 23211.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (C) is placed at 21769-20878 which is short term support range and Bank Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 20878. We can think of any major fall/decline after breaks and stay below 20878 only.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from high 23211 separately on lowest possible time frame to check its pattern.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline after 23211 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (a or 1) may be completed at 22667, wave (b or 2) may be completed at 23122 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 22417, wave [2] may be completed at 22757,  wave [3] may be completed at 21611, wave [4] may be completed at 22346 and wave [5] may be completed at 21580 or still in progress.

Wave [5] achieved minimum 38%-61 projection after breaks below 21412 whereas next 100% projection is placed at 20835 which may or may not be achieved.

Within wave [5], it seems wave (i) may be completed at 21906, wave (ii) may be completed at 22252 and wave (iii) may be in progress.

Again within wave (iii), it seems wave 1,2,3 may be completed till 21580 and wave 4 or 5 may be in progress.

23%-38% retracement for wave ‘4’ of (iii) is placed at 21738-21836 which is immediate resistance range and 21836 is immediate upside breakeven point.

Bank Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 21836 and has possibility of further decline towards 21375-20835 if fails to break above 21836. But staying above 21836 for more than 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 22252-22346 again.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

For short/medium term, 21769-20878 is major support and 20878 major downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 20878 and has possibility to bounce towards 23211-23975 in comings days if holds 20878. Two consecutive closing below 20878 can result in major downside reversal towards 17105-16116.

For very short term/Intraday, there is no change in outlook, 21738-21836 is immediate resistance range and 21836 is immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 21836 and has possibility to decline towards 21375-20835 fails to break above 21836.

But staying above 21836 for more than 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 22252-22346 again.

Trading Strategy:

  1. Bank Nifty can be sold if gets in 21738-21836 range using stoploss some point above 21836 expecting 21375-20835 as downside targets.

 

  1. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 21836 for more than 15 minutes then later decline towards 21836-21738 can be used to Buy Bank Nifty using stoploss some points below 21738 expecting 22252-22346 as upside targets.

Any other intraday trading opportunity will be updated during live market hours if we identify any.

Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Bank Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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