Bank Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Important Levels for 07 Oct 2019

| October 7, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 28681, registered high 28730 and declined back again by more than 1000 points to register day’s low 27653 and finally closed 682 points down at 27731.

Friday, 28982-29085 was immediate upside resistance range with 29085 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to give one more decline below 28077 from immediate resistance range 28982-29085.

Trading strategy was to sell Bank Nifty in 28754-28633 range using exact stoploss of 28683 expecting minimum downside targets 28240-28077 and same update was sent during live market hours (by whatsapp) to Live Update Subscribers. Bank Nifty declined by more than 800 points from selling range and finally closed at 27731. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame 

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24240. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart. Earlier we had two possibilities but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated, possibility of ED is most probable now.

So, (abc) wave completed from 24240-31783 can be inner wave (1) of ED, decline from 31783-26560 can be wave (2) of ED and wave (3) of ED may be in progress. Wave (3) of ED will have (abc) pattern.

So, if it really (3) of ED started from 26560 then Bank Nifty can rise towards new high with repeated volatile up/down swings because ED have (abc-abc-abc-abc-abc) structure.

But there is little confusion at bottom near 26560 which I am going to explain on next chart.

This is 05 hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move after 28602 which I am analyzing independently.

The bounce after 27392-28602 looks like corrective (abc) but if we assume wave (iv) completed at 28602 then wave (v) from 28602-26560 didn’t complete its pattern.

The decline from 28602-26560 looks corrective whereas wave (v) is always Impulse or Ending Diagonal Triangle. This will be the point of confusion for time being.

But no matter if the decline from 28602-26560 is Impulse or Corrective, next move can be calculated based on the pattern of bounce after 26560 only. So, we are going to ignore earlier move for time being and will concentrate on the pattern of bounce after 26560.

From low 26560, wave completed from 26560-30801 looks like corrective (ABC) because major downside breakeven point 29212 is already broken and waves are also overlapped. Conditions are warning cautions for further decline below 26560.

So, we need to analyze decline started from high 30801 on separate lowest possible time frame to check its inner counts.

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline after 30801 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave completed at 29470 may be wave [1], wave [2] may be completed at 30718, wave [3] may be completed at 28077, wave [4] may be completed at 28814 and wave [5] may be completed at 27653 or still in progress.

Wave [5] achieved 38% projection placed at 27769 whereas next 61%-100% projection is placed at 27125-26081 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze decline started from high 28814 on separate lowest possible time frame to check its inner wave counts.

This is 05 minutes time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline after 28814 which I am expecting start of wave [5] on 15 minute chart.

It seems wave completed at 28390 may be wave [i], wave [ii] may be completed at 28730 and wave [iii] may be completed at 27653 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of wave [iii] is placed at 27907-28064 which is immediate resistance range with 28064 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty can give one more decline of 444-718 points as wave [v] without breaking above 28064 but Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 28064 can result in further bounce towards 28730-28814.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Overall, Bank Nifty breaks below major downside breakeven point 29212 and register low 28943. Breaking below 29212 is indicating further decline towards 26560 but we need to concentrate on decline started from high 30801 to calculate short term/immediate moves and to plan trades.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 27907-28064 is immediate upside resistance range with 28064 as immediate upside breakeven point. One more decline of  444-718 point is possible either from present level or somewhere around from 28730-28064 as long as Bank Nifty trading below 28064.

But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 28064 can result in further bounce towards 28730-28814. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Trading Strategy and exact trade are for our Subscribers only, those who wants to trade can plan their own trades according to levels and conditions explained in conclusion. These levels and conditions are subjected to change in case Bank Nifty declines below 27653 or if open huge Gap Up/gap Down, so  these levels and conditions can be used for trading only if  readers have knowledge of Sweeglu Elliott Wave Rules.

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Category: Bank Nifty

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