Bank Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Important levels for 22 June 2020

| June 21, 2020

Bank Nifty opened flat at 20907, registers low 20878, and bounced back again by more than 500 points to register day’s high 21467 and closed 381 points up at 21338.

Friday, Bank Nifty was in the positive zone with support 20792-20646 and had possibility of bounce towards 21151-21415 if holds 20646. But staying below 20646 for 15 minutes continuously could result in a further decline towards 20030.

Bank Nifty achieved minimum target 21151-21415 range after registering high 21213 at very opening. Later, 20934-20761 was fresh support and 20761 was immediate downside breakeven point and the same was updated during live market hours.  Bank Nifty entered in support range 20934-20761 and bounced back again to register day’s fresh high 21467 and finally closed at 21338. Now, let’s have a fresh look at the latest charts for further scenarios.

This analysis report is covering decline started from all-time high 32613 which I am analyzing independently in my last analysis report Bank Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Important levels on All Time Frame Charts

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is the Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline after all-time high 32613 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave [1] completed from 32613-30209, wave [2] may be completed at 31649 as big Irregular Correction, wave [3] may be completed at 21351, wave [4] may be completed at 25670 and wave [5] may be completed at 16116.

This impulse completed from 32613-16116 can be wave (A) or (C of Irregular Correction). 38%-61% retracement of the whole wave from 32613-16791 is placed at 22417-26311. So, 22417-26311 are medium/short term resistance and Bank Nifty is in negative zone as long trading below this resistance.

From low 16116, It seems wave completed from 16116-21462 may be wave [A or 1], wave [B or 2] may be completed at 17105 and wave [C or 3] may be in progress. Minimum 100%-123% projection for wave [C or 3] is placed at 22451-23712 which is the normal target range for completion of wave [C or 3].

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 17105 separately on the lowest possible time frame to calculate very short term outlook.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is an Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce started from low 17105 which I am expecting the start of wave [C or 3] on the previous daily chart.

It seems wave [1] may be completed at 17672, wave [2] may be completed at 17313, wave [3] may be completed at 21807, wave [4] may be completed at 19507 and wave [5] may be in progress.

38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 21303-22412 but earlier high is 21807. So, 21807-22412 is the minimum target range for the completion of wave [5] if wave [4] is already completed at 19507.

Within wave [5], it seems wave [a or 1] may be completed at 20628, wave [b or 2] may be completed at 20030 and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

100%-161% projection for wave [c or 3] is placed at 21151-21843 which is the normal range for completion of wave [c or 3].

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [c or 3] is placed at 21127-20918. So, 21127-20918 is immediate support and 20918 is immediate downside breakeven point.

Bank Nifty is in the positive zone with support 21127-20918 and can bounce towards 21848-22412 if hold 20918. But if breaks and stay below 20918 for more than 15 minutes can result in a decline towards 20030-19507 again.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

For short/medium term, 22417-26311 can act as short term resistance and Bank Nifty is in the negative zone for short/medium term as long as trading below this resistance. Major reversal can be expected after close above 26311 only.

Very short term/Intraday, 21127-20918 is immediate support and 20918 is immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty is in the positive zone with support 21127-20918 and can bounce further towards 21848-22412 if hold 20918.

But if breaks and stay below 20918 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 20030-19507. We need to keep all these in mind while deciding the next trade.

Note: The pattern of bounce after 16116 and the pattern of decline after 21807 is complex and there is always low confidence when the pattern is complex. So, we need to concentrate on levels and outlook based on the pattern of bounce after 19507 (5 minutes chart).

Trading Strategy:

  1. Low-risk trading strategy is to buy on decline in 21127-20918 range using stoploss below 20918 on 15 minutes closing basis expecting 21848-22412 as upside target. Hedged trade is recommended because closing basis stoploss can be risky, exit trade if Bank Nifty spot trades below stoploss for 15 minutes.

 

  1. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 20918 for more than 15 minutes then trading strategy would be to Sell on bounce in 20918-21127 range using stoploss above 21127 on 15 minutes closing basis expecting 20030-19507 as downside target. Hedged trade is recommended because closing basis stoploss can be risky, exit trade if Bank Nifty spot trades above stoploss for 15 minutes.

I am suggesting 15 minutes closing basis stoploss because exact stoploss may not work in such volatile conditions in Complex Pattern.

Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Bank Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities, and expected markets behavior based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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