Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days

| June 10, 2018

Bank Nifty opened lower at 26457, declined further by more than 150 points to register low 26284 but bounced back again by more than 180 points till 26481 and finally closed 66 points down at 26451.

Friday, there was possibility of further bounce towards 27164 in coming days and Bank Nifty was expected to decline below 26069 only if the decline started from 27164 turns into Complex Correction (Double Zigzag or Triple Zigzag). 26595 was the immediate breakeven on upside and stoploss for any existing shorts.

Trading strategy was to buy 26500 call of 14 Jun Expiry if Bank Nifty breaks above breakeven point 26595 using stoploss of 26509 expecting 26766-27047 but our trade was not activated. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts for further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] on the previous chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

If I am right at identifying the pattern then wave [v] must complete above 27652 (minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 26505-28296 but earlier top is 26752 so 26752-28296 is the minimum range for completion of wave [v]) in comings weeks/months. But if am wrong at identifying wave [iv] as Irregular Correction then we can see one more decline below 23605.

So let’s look at the pattern of bounce started from 23605 if it carries the personalities of wave [v] or not.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Hourly chart

This is 5 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce from 23605 which I had marked as start of inner wave [v] of wave [3] on the previous chart.

From low 23605, it seems wave completed at 24666 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 27164.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 25988 which is the short term breakeven point below which we can think of any big downside reversal. Bank Nifty achieved 26069 till now.

Now, we need to concentrate on decline started from 27164 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate immediate moves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 27164.

The decline from high 27164-26069 looks like corrective wave (abc) but later bounce from 26069-26766 also looks like a [abc] corrective wave. This downward (abc) wave followed by upward [abc] is indicating a possibility of complex pattern like Ending Diagonal Triangle or Complex Correction. We can’t conclude exact pattern right now.

And from high 26766, it seems wave completed at 26658 may be wave 1, wave completed at 26730 may be wave 2, wave 3 may be completed at 26293 and wave 4 may be completed at 26481 or still in progress.

If wave 4 completed at 26481 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 26314-26210, but earlier low is 26284. So, minimum expected range for completion of wave 5 is 26284-26210 in this case, whereas 100% projection placed at 26044 which is a rare case.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For Medium/Long term, there is possibility of big Irregular Correction at top, so Bank Nifty is still in medium/long term positive zone and there is possibility for new high above 27652 either from present levels or from 23611-22998. This upside rally must be sharp because of Irregular Correction and it is sharp till now. But we still not confirmed if bottom is already made or pending because pattern at bottom is not completely clear.

For short term, overall pattern is indicating a possibility of bounce above 27164 in coming days but complex type of pattern at the end is making it difficult to calculate entry levels and stoploss.

Overall, there is possibility of multiple patterns and Bank Nifty can bounce from anywhere (present levels or lower levels) but 26044-25988 [100% projection for wave 5 and 38% retracement of wave (C or 3)] is immediate support at downside from where a small or big bounce is expected.

And Bank Nifty if fails to break above 26481 within 30-45 minute after opening than minimum fall towards 26284-26210 can be expected which can extend further towards 26044-25988.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while planning next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

According to the condition on the charts,

Overall, there is possibility of bounce towards 27164 in coming days so trading strategy must be buying on Dips when getting opportunity. We can’t calculate confident entry levels and stoploss right now. The probable traders in these conditions are: –

Bank Nifty if get in 26069-25988 range then buy Bank Nifty 26500 Call 28 June expiry with exact stoploss of 25959 (below breakeven point) expecting 250-400 points bounce soon.

Otherwise Bank Nifty if fails to break above 26481 within 30-45 minute after opening than minimum fall towards 26284-26210 can be expected, so one can short/buy put near 26481 if Bank Nifty trade below 26481 for 30-45 minute after opening with some points stoploss above 26481. Trade will be negated after Bank Nifty achieving 26284.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  2. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  3. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  4. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  5. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  6. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  9. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry
  10. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward
  11.  Bank Nifty can Bounce Above 25198 Again in Medium Term
  12.  Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onward
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  14. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  15. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  16. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  17. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  18. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  19. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Session

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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