Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days

| July 19, 2018

Bank Nifty opened higher at 27107, bounced further to register day’s high 27187 but failed to sustain at higher levels and decline by more than 350 points to register day’s low 26834 and close 127 points down at 26880.

Yesterday, one more bounce for 27164 and above was expected with 26928 as breakeven point.  Trading strategy was to buy 27000 Call of 19 Jul expiry if get Bank Nifty get in 26950-26928 range using stoploss of 26879 expecting 27164 as minimum upside target. But Bank Nifty achieved minimum target 27164 at opening only so trade was negated. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] on the previous chart. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

There is no change on wave counts on this chart, it seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

If I am right at identifying the pattern then wave [v] must complete above 27652 (minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 26505-28296 but earlier top is 27652), so 27652-28296 is the minimum range for completion of wave [v]) in comings weeks/months. But if am wrong at identifying wave [iv] as Irregular Correction then we can see one more decline below 23605.

So let’s look at the pattern of bounce started from 23605 if it carries the personalities of wave [v] or not.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 5 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce from 23605 which I had marked as start of inner wave [v] of wave [3] on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 24651 may be wave (1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (2), wave completed at 27164 may be wave (3) and wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

If wave (4) already completed at 26060 then minimum 38% projection for wave (5) is placed at 27591. So, Bank Nifty needs to bounce higher above 27591 without breaking below 26060 in this case.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (3) is placed at 25988 which is the short term breakeven point below which we can think of any big downside reversal.

Now, we need to concentrate on bounce started from 26060 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate immediate moves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26060. This bounce may be the progress of wave (5) as marked on 05 Hourly chart.

Wave completed from 26060-26289 may be wave (i), wave completed from 26289-26132 may be wave (ii) as Irregular Correction, wave completed from 26132-27164 may be wave (iii) and wave (iv) may be in progress as Irregular Correction.

Within wave (iv), inner wave (A) may be completed from 27164-26644, Irregular (B) may be completed from 26644-27187 which completed above start of (A) and last wave (C) may be in progress.

Wave (C) of Irregular Correction normally completes near end of (A) but it can also complete before the end of (A) but pattern of wave (C) is always impulse. So, let’s analyze the progress of (C) to check where it can complete.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 27187 which I am expecting as start of wave (C) of Irregular Correction.

It seems wave completed at 27112 may be wave (1), wave completed at 27165 may be wave (2) as irregular correction, wave (3) may be completed at 26834 and wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

Minimum 38% -61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 26785-26701 which is the minimum expected range for completion of wave (5) if wave (4) already completed at 26920.

38% retracement for (4) is placed at 26960 which is the immediate breakeven point and same 26960 can be used as stoploss for any shorts.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For Medium/Long term, there is possibility of big Irregular Correction at top, so Bank Nifty is still in medium/long term positive zone and there is possibility for new high above 27652 either from present levels or from 23611-22998. This upside rally must be sharp because of Irregular Correction and it is sharp till now. But we still not confirmed if bottom is already made or pending because pattern at bottom is not completely clear.

For short term, There is a possibility of Irregular Correction started from 27164 with 27187 as end of (B). So, Bank Nifty can bounce sharply above 27187 may be towards 27187-27591. The bounce can happens from present levels or after registering low near 26644.

26960 is immediate breakeven point on upside. Bank Nifty if break and stay above 26960 for 15 minutes then further bounce towards 27187 is possible.

So, we need to keep these conditions in mind while planning next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

According to conditions on charts,

Bank  Nifty if get in 26785-26644 (near 26644) range then buy 27100 call of 26 July expiry without stoploss expecting minimum 27187-27591 in coming days. Stoploss will be updated later after confirming with the pattern [Trade in light quantity because we are trading without stoploss].

This is most probable trade I can suggest in these conditions otherwise one can plan his/her own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  2. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  3. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  4. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  5. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  6. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  7. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  8. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  9. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  10. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  11. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  12. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  13. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

 

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Emailewavinod@gmail.com

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Category: Bank Nifty

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