Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009

| March 15, 2018 | 1 Comment

Bank Nifty opened flat at 24854, registered low 24757 and bounced back again to register high 24939 but didn’t sustain at that level and declined back again to register low 24732 and finally closed 59 points down at 24791.

Yesterday, I had mentioned that Bank Nifty can decline sharply for low below 24048 (start of Triple Zigzag Correction) after completion of Triple Zigzag Correction above 25009 if I am right at identifying the pattern.

I suggested holding Bank Nifty 25500 Call of 28 March expiry with exact stoploss 24746 expecting minimum target 25009 and above. Bank Nifty traded whole day in 24757-24939 range and Stolposs of 24747 was trigged just 10 minute before closing. Now, we need to analyze latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report “Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018”

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

                                Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3]. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii],[iv] may be completed till 23611 and wave [v] may be in progress from 23611. Wave [v] achieved its 38% projection placed at 26511 whereas 61% projection placed at 28302 which may or may not achieve.

Within wave [v] after 23611, the bounce is combination of repeated (ABC) waves. So, either there is Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern in progress or it is Irregular Correction at top. Exact pattern is not yet clear, so we need to concentrate on the decline started from 27652 until we get clarity.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

                            Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

 

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline from 27652. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in my last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems that the decline started from high 27652 is impulsive with wave 1 completed from 27652-27116, wave 2 may be completed from 27116-27613, wave 3 may be completed from 27613-25023, wave 4 may be completed from 25023-25723 as irregular correction and wave 5 may be completed at 24048 or still in progress.

38%-61% retracement of the whole wave [27652-24048] is placed at 25424-26275 which is the expected range on upside for wave (B), if wave impulse is already completed at 24048 as wave (A).

Other Possibility: But if wave completed at 24048 is inner wave (iii) of 5 rather than wave 5 then Bank Nifty can give one more decline below 24048 to complete wave (v) of 5. 38% retracement of progress of wave 5 is placed at 24687 in this case which is also broken.

So, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 24048 to check if we can get some clue.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

                         Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce from low 24048.

It seems bounce started from low 24048 is progressing as corrective pattern like Triple Zigzag (abc-X1-abc-X2-abc) as shown. This Triple Zigzag may be in last (abc) cycle where (abc-X1-abc-X2) is already completed and last (abc) may be in progress.

Last (abc) cycle of Triple Zigzag may be tricky and confusing but it needs to complete above 25009 without breaking below the low line formed by joining end points of wave X1 and X2. Please look carefully at the presentation on chart.

Overall, Bank Nifty can first bounce above 25009 without breaking below the line joining (X1-X2) followed by sharp decline for low below 24048 (start of Triple Zigzag).

(The line joining wave X1-X2 is around 24610-24640 right now which will rise as the time passes, so we need watch this line during market hours for exact point to initiate any trade).

Conclusion and Outlook:

There is no change in wave counts and outlook, still there is possibility of Triple Zigzag Correction started from low 24048 which is in its last leg and need to complete above 25009. And we can expect a very sharp decline for low below 24048 (start of Triple Zigzag Correction) after completion of Triple Zigzag Correction above 25009 if I am right at identifying the pattern.

Overall conditions are indicating a bounce above 25009 without breaking below lower line joining wave X1-X2 (look carefully on chart) followed by a very sharp decline of 1000 points for low below 24048.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while planning next trade.

Trading Strategy:

According to the conditions on the charts, trading strategy would be:

  1. Bank Nifty if decline near line Joining end point of wave X1-X2 (look carefully at the presentation on 15 min chart) then 24600 call of 22 Mar expiry can be bought using stoploss of 10-15 points below the same lower line expecting minimum target 25009. Exit the trade if lower line breaks or when 25009 is touched.

(The line joining wave X1-X2 is around 24610-24640 right now which will rise as the time passes, so we need watch this line during market hours for exact point to initiate any trade).

  1. Buy Bank Nifty 24500 put of 22 Mar 2018 expiry if Bank Nifty even touches 25009 without any stoploss expecting targets 24048 and below in coming days. Don’t be over greedy, wait for the levels and Buy Put in light quantity because we are trading without stoploss and loss can be huge if I am wrong at identifying the pattern.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. “Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018”
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  3. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  4. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  5. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward
  7.  Bank Nifty can Bounce Above 25198 Again in Medium Term
  8.  Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onward
  9. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  10. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  11. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  12. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  13. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  15. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Session

Contact me:

 Emailewavinod@gmail.com

Call: 9796033671

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Website: www.ewanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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