Bank Nifty can Decline Towards 29921-29497 Soon

| November 4, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 30430, bounced further to register day’s high 30607 but decline back again by more than 350 points to register day’s low 30227 and finally closed 02 points up at 30333. Now, let’s analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame 

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24240. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart. Earlier we had two possibilities but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated, possibility of ED is most probable now.

So, (abc) wave completed from 24240-31783 can be inner wave (1) of ED, and wave (2) of ED may be completed from 31783-26560 as Simple Zigzag or still in progress as Complex Correction. We need to concentrate on bounce after 26560 to check its pattern.

From low 26560, wave completed from 26560-30801 looks like corrective (ABC) because 38% retracement of (C) is broken after break below and waves are also overlapped. (ABC) corrective pattern from 26560-30801 is warning cautions for decline below 26560 again.

But resistance 29212-29819 is broken, so we need to analyze the last bounce started from low 27568 on separate lowest possible time frame to calculate further possibilities.

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 27568 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave completed at 28181 may be wave [a or 1], wave [b or 2] may be completed at 27703 and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

Within wave [c or 3], it seems wave (1) may be completed at 28557, wave (2) may be completed at 27744, wave (3) may be completed at 29687, wave (4) may be completed at 28928 and wave (5) may be completed at 30607 or still in progress.

Wave (5) achieved minimum 38%-61% projection whereas next 100% projection is placed at 30912 which is a rare case.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [c or 3] is placed at 29921-29497. So, 29921-29497 is short term support and 29497 is short term downside breakeven point. Any major reversal can be expected after breaks below 29497 only.

Now, we need to analyze bounce started from low 28928 on separate lowest possible time frame to calculate immediate/Intraday Outlook.

This is 15 minutes time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 28928 which I am expecting start of wave (5) on 30 minute chart.

Within wave (5), It seems wave (i),(ii),(iii) may be completed till 29997, wave (iv) may be completed at 29758 as Irregular Correction and wave (v) may be in progress as Ending Diagonal (ED).

Wave (v) achieved 38%-61% after breaks above 30418 whereas next 100% projection is placed at 30827 which may or may not be achieved.

Within wave (v), it seems wave [i] of ED may be completed at 30413, wave [ii] may be completed at 29994, wave [iii] may be completed at 30607 and wave [iv] may be in progress.

Wave [3] of ED is smaller than [1], so wave [5] needs to be smaller than [3]. We can calculate maximum range of wave [5] of ED after getting the end of wave [4] or we can identify reversal with the help of 38% retracement after completion of wave [5].

Note: ED is just a possibility right now based on the structure whereas confirmation will be after its completion only.

29994 (end of wave [ii]) is pattern negation point and Bank Nifty if breaks below 29994 then the pattern of ED will be negated.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty broke short term resistance range 29212-29819 and bounced further till 30607. Now, Bank Nifty is in positive zone with 29921-29497 as short term support range and 29497 is short term downside breakeven point. Any major reversal can be expected after breaks below 29497 only.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, there is possibility of Ending Diagonal Triangle Pattern at top and Bank Nifty has possibility to bounce further above 30607 without breaking below 29994 followed by decline towards 29921-29497 (short term support) again.

But Bank Nifty if breaks below 29994 then the pattern of ED will be negated and we needs to check fresh pattern again.

On upside, 30827-30912 is good resistance and Bank Nifty can give small or big decline without breaking higher above 30912. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

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Trading Strategy:

Short term strategy would be buying on Dips as long with stoploss of 29993 (below 29994) expecting bounce above 30607 and then Selling on rise after achieving 30607. We need to check pattern again if stoploss of 29993 triggers.

Or low selling can be done if gets Bank Nifty in 30820-30912 range with stoploss of 30923 expecting decline towards 29921-29497.

Any Intraday or small swing trade with exact entry levels and exact stoploss can be planed during Market Hours only and same will be updates to “Live Update Subscribers” through WhatsApp Broadcast.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

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Category: Bank Nifty

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