Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon

| July 28, 2018

Bank Nifty opened higher at 27497, registers low 27455 but bounced back again by more than 150 points to register new all time high 27661 and finally close 228 points up at 27634.

Friday, I had mentioned that Bank Nifty is still in positive zone because pattern doesn’t seem completed yet and 27313-27230 was immediate support and Bank Nifty has possibility to give one more bounce without breaking lower below breakeven point 27230.

Trading strategy was to buy 27400 Call of 02 Aug expiry if get Bank Nifty in 27280-27230 range using stoploss 27199 expecting bounce towards 27505-27664 in coming days. Bank Nifty opened higher at 27497 and bounced to achieve 27505-27664 range without giving chance to buy call. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] on the previous chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

Wave [v] achieved 38% projection after breaking above 26505 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 28296 which may or may not be achieve. Bank Nifty achieved 27661 till now.

Now, we need to analyze wave [v] started from 23605 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 5 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce from 23605 which I had marked as start of inner wave [v] of wave [3] on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 24651 may be wave (1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (2), wave completed at 27164 may be wave (3), wave completed at 26060 may be wave (4) and wave (5) may be in progress.

Wave (5) achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking above 27419 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 28259 which may or may not be achieve. Bank Nifty achieved 27661 till now.

Now, we need to analyze wave (5) started from 26060 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26060. This bounce I marked as progress of wave (5) as marked on 05 Hourly chart.

Wave completed from 26060-26289 may be wave (i) of (5), wave completed from 26289-26132 may be wave (ii), wave completed from 26132-27164 may be wave (iii), wave completed from 27164-26671 may be wave (iv) as Irregular Correction and wave (v) may be in progress.

Wave (v) achieved 61% projection after breaking above 27353 whereas next 100% projection is placed at 27775 which may or may not be achieve. Bank Nifty achieved 27661 till now.

Now, we need to analyze wave (v) started from 26671 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 26671 which I am expecting as start of wave inner wave (v) of (5) on previous 30 Minute chart.

It seems, wave completed from 26671-27124 may be wave [1], wave completed from 27124-26868 may be wave [2] and wave [3] may be in progress from 26868.

Within wave [3], it seems wave [i] may me completed at 27028, wave [ii] may be completed at 26939 and wave [iii] may be completed at 27661 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [3] is placed at 27473-27358 which is the immediate support on downside and same 27358 is the breakeven point on downside and stoploss for any longs.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For short term, there is no change in outlook, Bank Nifty is still in positive zone and has possibility to bounce further because pattern doesn’t seem completed yet (wave [iii] still in progress). 27473-27358 is immediate support and 27358 is breakeven point on downside.

Bank Nifty can give one more bounce of minimum 378-495 points (38%-61% projection for wave [5]) either from present level or from support range 27473-27358 without breaking much lower below 27358. But Bank Nifty if trades and stay below 27358 for 15 minutes can fall further towards 27028.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

According to conditions on charts,

Bank Nifty is still in Bullish Zone and trading strategy must be “Buying on Dips” whenever getting opportunity for minimum 378-495 points bounce.  Bank Nifty has possibility to decline towards support range very soon but it is safe to wait for correction to buy rather than Selling against the progress of wave [iii].

And safe and low risk trading strategy is to buy Bank Nifty 27400 call of 02 Aug expiry if get in 27400-27358 range using stoploss 27319 (some points below 27358) expecting minimum 378-495 bounce.

This is safe and low risk trade I can suggest in these conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  2. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  3. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  4. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  5. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  8. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  9. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  10. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  11. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  12. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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