Bank Nifty can touches 28000-28388 range before 27th September 2018 Expiry

| September 17, 2018

Bank Nifty opened gap down at 27002, declined sharply just after opening by more than 250 points to registers day’s low 26743 and finally closed 343 points down at 26820.

Yesterday, there was a possibility of sharp move either towards 27552 (start of extended wave [5]) or towards 26555 (earlier low) in short term and 27238 was the pattern negation point on upside.

Trading strategy was to hold both 27300 Call and 26600 Put of 19TH Sep 2018 expiry bought in 26945-27067 range expecting sharp move on upside. Bank Nifty opened at 27002, declined sharply just after opening till 26743 and finally closed at 26820. Bank Nifty 27300 Call and 26600 Put of 19TH Sep 2018 bought at combined premium of 120-130 points but I sent update to exit this trade in loss. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] (explained in my all time frame report.  This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be completed at 28388 or still in progress.

Within wave [v], it seems wave completed at 24651 may be wave (1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (2), wave completed at 27164 may be wave (3), wave completed at 26060 may be wave (4) and wave (5) may be completed at 28388 or still in progress.

Wave (5) achieved 61% projection after breaking above 28259 and next 100% projection is placed at 29619 which may or may not be achieve. Bank Nifty achieved 28388 till now.

Now, we need to analyze wave (5) of [v] started from 26060 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26060. This bounce I marked as start of wave (5) as marked on Daily chart.

Wave completed from 26060-27164 may be wave (A), wave completed from 27164-26671 may be (B) and wave completed from 26671-28378 may be wave (C). But the further decline after 28378 looks like an Irregular Correction with wave [A] from 28378-27739, Irregular [B] completed from 27739-28388 and wave [C] may be completed at 26555 or still in progress.

The possibility of this Irregular Correction is indicating very sharp bounce for 28388 after completion of wave (C).

So, let’s analyze the process of expected wave (C) to calculate its probable completion.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 28388 which I am expecting wave (C) on the previous chart.

The decline after 28388 looks Impulsive with inner wave [1] completed from 28388-27942, wave completed from 27942-28180 may be wave [2], wave [3] may be completed at 27136, wave [4] may be completed from 27136-27552 and wave [5] may be completed at 26555 or still in progress from 27552.

Wave [5] achieved 61% projection after breaking below 26778 and next 100% is placed at 26300 which is a rare case. Bank Nifty achieved 26555 till now. This wave [5] started from 27552 is highly extended, so Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27552 after completion of wave [5].

On the other hand, 100% projection for wave [5] is a rare case, so wave [5] may not breaks much lower below 26300.

Within wave [5], it seems wave [i] may be completed at 27238, wave [ii] may be completed at 27508 and wave [iii] may be completed at 26555, wave [iv] may be completed at 27205 and wave [v] may be in progress.

27238 (End of wave [i]) is pattern negation point or wave [5] and Bank Nifty if breaks above 27238 we need to check fresh pattern again.

Now, we need to analyze the last bounce started from 27205 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern/immediate counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 27205.

It seems wave 1,2,3, may be completed till 26802 and wave 4 may be completed at 26890 or still in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave 3 of [iv] is placed at 26955 which is the immediate breakeven point on upside and same can be used as stoploss for any shorts.

Overall, Bank Nifty can give one decline more below 26555 and 26955 is the immediate breakeven point on upside. Bank Nifty if breaks and trade above 26955 continuously more than 15 minute can result of further bounce towards 27125-27205.

Conclusion and Outlook:

Overall, the formation of Irregular Correction type of pattern at top is indicating one more bounce for new high above 28388 in coming day 26300 is max expected range on downside at this point of time

For very short term or Intraday, 26955 is the immediate breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty if Breaks/ Trade above 26955 continuously more than 15 minute can result of further bounce towards 27125-27205. Otherwise, there is a possibility of further decline towards 26555-26300.

But in overall scenario, the possibility of Irregular Correction is very strong and wave (C) of Irregular Correction is bigger, even inner wave [5] of (C) is highly extended. We had couple of wrong trades but possibility of a sharp bounce is still there and Bank Nifty may not gives chance to buy at reversal. I will not be surprised if Bank Nifty bounces towards 28000-28388 in 3-4 sessions after completion of wave (C) if I am right at identifying the pattern.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

According to the conditions on chart: –

Overall, there is possibility of sharp bounce towards 28000-28388 from somewhere around 26555-26300 range and Bank Nifty can achieve this 28000-28388 in Sep Expiry only if wave (C) completes in next 02 sessions and Bank Nifty may not give chance to buy.

So, Bank Nifty 27500 call of 27 Sep expiry is trading around 58-60 and I would prefer to buy this 27500 call around 50 to hold till 27th Sep expiry. My stoploss for this call is zero and I will adjust the quantity accordingly. Traders can copy this trades if feels comfortable but remember that stoploss for this call is zero, so decide the quantity accordingly.

There is possibility of decline towards 26555-26300 with 26955 as upside breakeven point but I am not confident in selling because of Irregular Correction. Those who want to sell can use stoploss above 26955.

Otherwise, I will update by email if I find any opportunity any hedge trade.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

Contact me:

Emailewavinod@gmail.com

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Category: Bank Nifty

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