Bank Nifty Levels and Trading Strategy for 26 Sep 2019 Expiry

| September 25, 2019

Bank Nifty opened lower at 30029, registered high 30067 and declined back again by more than 600 points to registered day’s low 29470 and finally closed 597 points down at 29586.

Yesterday, 30234-30300 was immediate resistance range and Bank Nifty was expected to decline further below 29889, may be towards 29497-29282 in coming sessions either from present levels or from immediate resistance range.

Bank Nifty opened lower and declined straightway below 28819 to achieve minimum target. Later 29784-29904 was updates as fresh resistance after registering low 29593 which worked perfect, Bank Nifty entered in resistance and decline till 11470 after the update. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame 

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24240. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart. Earlier we had two possibilities but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated, possibility of ED is most probable now.

So, (abc) wave completed from 24240-31783 can be inner wave (1) of ED, decline from 31783-26560 can be wave (2) of ED and wave (3) of ED may be in progress. Wave (3) of ED will have (abc) pattern.

So, if it really (3) of ED started from 26560 then Bank Nifty can rise towards new high with repeated volatile up/down swings because ED have (abc-abc-abc-abc-abc) structure.

But there is little confusion at bottom near 26560 which I am going to explain on next chart.

This is hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move after 28602 which I am analyzing independently.

The bounce after 27392-28602 looks like corrective (abc) but if we assume wave (iv) completed at 28602 then wave (v) from 28602-26560 didn’t complete its pattern. The decline from 28602-26560 looks corrective whereas wave (v) is always Impulse or Ending Diagonal Triangle. This will be the point of confusion for time being.

But no matter if the decline from 28602-26560 is Impulse or Corrective, next move can be calculated based on the pattern of bounce after 26560 only. So, we are going to ignore earlier move for time being and will concentrate on the pattern of bounce after 26560.

From low 26560, it seems wave completed at 28277 may be wave [A or 1], wave completed at 26641 may be wave [B or 2] and wave [C or 3] may be completed at 30801.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [C or 3] is placed at 29819-29212 which is major support range and Bank Nifty already entered in this support. 29212 is major downside breakeven point and we can think of any major downside reversal after break below 29212 only.

Now, let’s have a separate look at decline started from 30801 on lowest possible time frame to check its pattern

This is 05 minutes time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline after 30801 which I am analyzing independently. The pattern of decline from 30801-29889 is not completely clear but the bounce from 29889-30409 looks like a corrective pattern which retraced 38%-61%.

So may be wave (a or 1) completed from 30801-29889, wave (b or 2) may be completed from 29889-30409 and wave (c or 3) may be may be completed at 29470 or still in progress.Wave (c or 3) achieved minimum 100% projection placed at 29497 whereas 123% projection is placed at 29281 which may or may not be achieved.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave [i],[ii],[iii],[iv] may be completed till 29874 and wave [v] may be completed at 29470 or still in progress.Wave [v] achieved minimum 38% projection placed at 29562 whereas next 61%-100% projection is placed at 29369-29058 which may or may not be achieved.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 29691-29828 which is immediate resistance range with 29828 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29828 can result in further bounce towards 30409-30801. Otherwise, one more decline of 509-823 points is possible if Bank Nifty completes upside corrective pattern below 29828.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Overall, Bank Nifty is in positive zone with 29819-29212 as major support and 29212 as major downside breakeven point. Any major downside reversal can be expected after break below 29912 only. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 29212 can result in further decline towards 26641-25560.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 29691-29828 is immediate resistance range with 29828 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29828 can result in further bounce towards 30409-30801.

Otherwise, one more decline of 509-823 points is possible from tomorrow’s high if Bank Nifty completes upside corrective pattern below 29828.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

We have following trading conditions according to outlook and levels: –

Confident Trade: Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29828 for more than 15 minutes then buying can be done on decline in 29828-29691 range using exact stoploss of 29669 expecting bounce towards 30409-30801 which can extend even higher.

Trade needs confirmation during Market Hours: Low risk selling can be done on bounce in 29691-29828 range using exact stoploss of 29863 (some points above 29828) expecting decline of 509-823 points from tomorrow’s high. This trade needs confirmation during Market Hours, a corrective pattern must complete in 29691-29828 range for confident selling.

We need conformation because Bank Nifty already entered in major support 29819-29212 and the decline from top is 3 waves till now. If this is Corrective Simple Zigzag pattern then Bank Nifty can bounce for high above 30801 after completion of correction.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be

updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

Tags: , ,

Category: Bank Nifty

About the Author ()

Comments are closed.