Bank Nifty Outlook and Important Levels for 11 Nov 2019

| November 10, 2019

Bank Nifty opened bit lower at 30571, registered low 30504 and bounced back by more than 500 points to registered day’s high 31108 but declined back sharply and finally closed 116 points up at 30749.

Friday, 30630-30512 was immediate support with 30512 as immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to bounce towards 30821-30961 as long as trading above 30512.

Trading strategy was “Buying on Dips” as long as Bank Nifty is trading above 30512 for targets towards 30821-30961. Bank Nifty registered low 30504 and bounced further till 31108 but no trade was suggested during Live Market Hours. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24240. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart. Earlier we had two possibilities but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated, possibility of ED is most probable now.

So, (abc) wave completed from 24240-31783 can be inner wave (1) of ED, and wave (2) of ED may be completed from 31783-26560 as Simple Zigzag or still in progress as Complex Correction. We need to concentrate on bounce after 26560 to check its pattern.

From low 26560, wave completed from 26560-30801 can be marker as wave (a or 1), decline from 30801-27568 can be marked as wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave (c or 3) started from low 27568 on separate lowest possible time frame to calculate further possibilities.

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 27568 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave completed at 28181 may be wave [1], wave [2] may be completed at 27703, wave [3] may be completed at 30759 and wave [4] may be completed at 30016 and wave [5] may be in progress.

38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 31166-31876 which is minimum expected target range for completion of wave [5].

23%-38% retracement of wave [3] is placed at 29868-29428. So, 29868-29428 is short term support range and 29428 is short term downside breakeven point. Any major reversal can be expected after breaks below 29428 only.

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave [5] started from 30013 on separate lowest possible time frame.

This is 5 minutes time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 30013 which I market as start of inner wave [5] of (c or 3) on hourly chart.

It seems inner wave (i),(ii),(iii) of [5] is completed till 30817 and wave (iv) or (v) may be in progress.  Either wave (iv) completed at 30465 and (v) is in progress or wave (iv) is still in progress as Irregular Correction. There are multiple possibilities so we need to concentrate on internal pattern of decline 31108 to calculate next outlook.

From high 31108, it seems wave completed at 30859 may be wave [a or 1], wave [b or 2] may be completed at 30984 and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

Within wave [c or 3], it seems wave ‘1’ may be completed at 30890, wave ‘2’ may be completed at 30979 and wave ‘3’ may be completed at 30683 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [c or 3] is placed at 30754-30797. So, 30754-30797 is immediate resistance range and 30797 is immediate upside breakeven point.  Bank Nifty if break and stay above 30797 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 30984-31108.

Otherwise, further decline towards short term support 29868-29428 if Bank Nifty fails to stay above 30797.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

For short term, Bank Nifty is in positive zone with 29868-29428 as short term support range and 29428 is short term downside breakeven point. Any major reversal can be expected after breaks below 29428 only.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 30754-30797 is immediate resistance and 30797 is immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30797 for more than 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 30984-31108.

Otherwise, further decline towards short term support 29868-29428 if Bank Nifty fails to stay above 30797.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Short term support is 29868-29428, so we need to wait for decline towards short tern support 29868-29428 for any positional trade.

For Intraday, Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30797 for more than 15 minutes then later decline towards 30797-30754 can be used to buy Bank Nifty with exact stoploss of 30729 expecting bounce towards 30984-30108.

Bank Nifty can also be sold if an upside corrective pattern in 30754-30797 range but trade can be decided during market hours only after confirmation from the pattern.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

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Category: Bank Nifty

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