Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 05 August 2019

| August 4, 2019

Bank Nifty opened down at 28244, declined to register day’s low 27936 but bounced back again by more than 500 points to registered day’s high 28544 and finally closed 162 points down at 28204. Overall, it was the day with very volatile moves.

Friday, 28289 was immediate downside breakeven point and Bank Nifty was expected to decline further below 28047 if breaks and stay below 28289 for 15 minute.

Trading strategy was “Selling on Rise” whenever getting opportunity. Bank Nifty opened at 28244 and achieved minimum target 28047 at very opening. Later, Bank Nifty bounced with volatility and two selling opportunities were identified. Stoploss of one selling trade was triggered but one trade is still open.  Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (2) and wave (3) may be completed at 31783 and wave (4) may be in progress from 31783.

Within wave (4), It seems wave completed at 30623 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 31699 may be wave (B or 2) as Irregular Correction and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Again within wave (C or 3), It seems wave [1] may be completed at 30346, wave [2] may be completed at 30870, wave [3] may be completed at 28047 or still in progress.

Again within wave [3], it seems wave (i),(ii),(iii),(iv) may be completed till 29593 and wave (v) may be completed at 27936 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 28814-29358 which is the major resistance on upside. Bank Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below major upside breakeven point 29358. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29358 can result in further bounce towards 30799-31752 otherwise further decline towards 26617-24240 is possible.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from high 29593 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 29593 which I expecting start of wave (v) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 29593-29104 may be wave [i], wave completed from 29104-29530 may be wave [ii], wave completed at 28047 may be wave [iii], wave [iv] may be completed at 28544 and wave [v] may be in progress.

38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 27911-27519 which is the minimum target range for completion of wave [v] if wave [iv] is already completed 28544.

Within wave [v], an impulse completed from 28544-28166 may be wave (1) and wave (2) may be in progress. 38%-61% retracement for wave (2) is placed at 28310-28399.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty entered in medium term negative zone after breaking below major downside breakeven point 29742 and there is possibility for further decline towards 26671-24240. 28814-29358 is major resistance and 29358 is major upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29358 can result in further bounce towards 30799-31752 otherwise further decline towards 26617-24240 is possible.

For very short term/Intraday, 28310-28399 is low risk selling range and Bank Nifty can decline further towards 27911-27519 either from present or somewhere around from 28310-28399 in coming sessions. But Bank Nifty if breaks above 28544 then we needs to check pattern again.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Overall, 28819-29358 is major upside resistance range and Bank Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 29358, even there is possibility for decline towards 26671-24240. So, short term trading strategy must be Sell on Rise Whenever getting low risk opportunity as long as trading below 29358. 28814-29358 is low risk positional selling range for Targets below 26671.

For intraday, existing shorts/puts can be hold or fresh selling can be done if get Bank Nifty in 28310-28399 range  using stoploss above 28451 expecting further decline below 27911-27519 in coming days. But Bank Nifty if breaks above 28544 then we needs to check fresh pattern again.

Any other trading opportunity can be identified during market hours only and same will be updates through Live Updates (Only to Live Updates Clients).

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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