Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 07 January 2019

| January 5, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 26999, register day’s low 26929 and bounced back again by more than 350 points to register day’s high 27274 and finally closed 235 points up at 27195.

Friday, I had mentioned that that there was a possibility of Irregular correction at top (15 Minute chart). So, Bank Nifty was expected to give one more bounce for high above 27430 in coming days. 26905-26849 was very strong support.

Trading strategy was to hold Bank Nifty 28000 Call Jan Expiry (Monthly)/ 27400 Call of 10th Jan Expiry bought Thursday in price range 120-100/100-90 without stolposs till further update. Bank Nifty registered low 26929 and bounced till 27274 whereas 28000 Call (Monthly)/ 27400 call of 10th Jan Expiry bounced till 178/169 and finally closed at 162/129. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave inner [4] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 October 2018 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting start of wave [4] of wave (iii). Wave [4] may be completed from 28388-24240 as Simple Zigzag Correction.

From low, its seems wave completed at 25915 may be wave (i), wave completed at 24353 may be wave (ii), wave (iii) may be completed at 27369, wave (iv) may be completed at 26408 and wave (v) may be in progress from 26408.

38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 27603-28341 which is the minimum target range for completion of wave (v).

Now, let’s analyze the bounce started from low 26408 on separate lowest time frame chart to check immediate move/counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26408 which I am expecting start of wave(v) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 26517 may be wave [1], wave completed at 26460 may be wave [2], wave [3] may be completed at 27239, wave [4] may be completed at 26923 as irregular Correction and wave [5] may be in progress from 26923.

38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 27313-27554 but earlier top is 27430. So, 27430-27554 is the minimum expected target range for completion of wave [5] if wave [4] already completed at 26923.

Let’s analyze the bounce started from low 26923 on separate lowest time frame chart to check immediate move/counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 26923 which I am expecting start of wave [5] on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 26923-27274 may be (a or 1), wave completed from 27274-27065 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 27065.

100%-161% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 27416-27632 which is the expected target range for completion of wave (c or 3). 27065 [end of wave (b or 2)] can be used as trailing stoploss for longs.

Conclusion and Outlook:

There is no major change in outlook, Bank Nifty charts are indicating that there is a possibility of Irregular correction at top (15 Minute chart) and Bank Nifty can give one more bounce above 27430 [which further can extend towards 27554-27632] in coming days if i am right at identifying the pattern.

27065 [end of wave (b or 2)] can be used as trailing stoploss for longs.We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

According to fresh conditions on charts: –

  1. Bank Nifty 28000 Call of Jan Expiry (Monthly)/ 27400 Call of 10th Jan Expiry if bought on Thursday/Friday at 120-100/100-90 price range then hold same with trailing stoploss of 27059 (below 27065) expecting bounce towards 27416-27632. Start booking/protecting profit after 27416.

These is low risk trading strategies I can suggest in such conditions, otherwise- traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

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Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 31 December 2018
  2. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 03 December 2018     
  3. Bank Nifty can Decline by 450-700 Points Before 26431
  4. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 15 November 2018 Onward
  5. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 11 October 2018 Onward
  6. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts dated 08 October 2018

 

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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