Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 09 May 2019 Onward

| May 9, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 29261, declined from day’s high 29261 by more than 250 points to registered day’s low 28951 and finally closed 293 points down at 28994.

Yesterday, 29383-29469 was immediate resistance range with 29469 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to bounce further towards 29712-29385 if breaks and stay above 29469 for 15 minute. Otherwise, one more decline of minimum 240-360 points was expected if Bank Nifty fails to break above 29469. 29040 was short term breakeven point on downside.

No particular trade was suggested but I mentioned that low risk selling can be done near 29469 if upside corrective pattern completes near 29469. Buying can be done after break above 29469 only. Bank Nifty opened at 29261 and decline till 28951 and finally closed at 28994. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 30648.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29040 which is already broken today. 29040 is a trend deciding point from where Bank Nifty can bounce towards new high or can start further decline towards 26617-24240. Bank Nifty will enter in short/medium term negative zone after break below 29040.

29040 is already broken, Now, we need to concentrate on the decline started from high 30648 for confirmation.

Now, let’s analyze the move started after 30648 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 30648.

The whole decline looks like a Complex Correction with first (ABC) cycle completed from 30648-29435, Wave (X) may be completed from 29435-30121 and 2nd (ABC) cycle may be in progress.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from high 30121 on separate lowest time frame chart to check next immediate move.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 29835 which I am expecting start of 2nd (ABC) cycle on the previous chart.

Within 2nd (ABC) cycle, it seems wave (A) may be completed at 29537, wave (B) may be completed at 29835 and wave (C) may be completed at 28951 or still in progress.

Again within wave (C), it seems wave completed at 29715 may be wave [1], wave completed at 29746 may be wave [2] as Irregular Correction, wave [3] may be completed at 29051, wave [4] may be completed at 29241 and wave [5] may be in progress.

38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 28941-28756 which is the minimum target range for completion of wave [5] whereas 100% projection is placed at 28457 which is rare case.

38% retracement of progress of whole wave (C) is placed at 29288 which is immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29288 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 29712-29835.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty broke short/medium term downside breakeven point after breaking below 29040. Now, Bank Nifty is in negative zone as long as trading below 29288. We can expect any reversal after breaking above 29288 only.

For Intraday/very short term, 29288 is immediate resistance/upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29288 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 29712-29835. Otherwise, further decline towards 28941-28756 is possible.

28457 is next reasonable support. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

29288 is immediate upside breakeven point, so low risk selling can be done near 29288 if upside corrective pattern completes near this point. Buying can be done after break above 29288 only but entry levels and stoploss for buying can be calculated after breakout only.

Major support 29040 is broken and 28457 is next reasonable support. Bank Nifty if decline straightway near 28457 then light buying can be done but if it decline after bouncing then the levels will change and we need to recalculate the levels.

Overall conditions are not suggesting any confident low risk trade in advance. So, I just mentioned important levels and low risk trading conditions. I will send alert during market hours through whatsapp if find any confident trading opportunity based on internal wave patterns.

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DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.                                                                

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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