Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 15 May 2019

| May 15, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 28718, declined to registered low 28582 and bounced back again by more than 400 points to register day’s high 29058 followed by decline till 28729 and finally closed 169 points up at 28829.

Yesterday, 28777 was immediate upside breakeven point and Bank Nifty was expected to bounce towards 29049-29202 if breaks and stay above 28777 for more than 15 minute. Otherwise, further decline towards 28375-27865 was expected soon.

Trading strategy was “Selling on Rise” near immediate resistance 28777 expecting minimum downside target 28375-27865 which further can extend towards 26617-24240 in coming weeks. Bank Nifty future was suggested to buy during live market through WhatsApp at 28820 with stoploss 28907. Bank Nifty future decline till 28701 after entry (Trade trigged) but bounced back again and our stoploss was triggered with 90 points loss. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 30670.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29054 which is already broken, so Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone and warning cautions for further decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks.

Now, we need to analyze the move started after 30670 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chartElliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 30670.

It seems wave completed from 30670-29435 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 29435-30121 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 30121.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29294. So, 29294 is short/medium term breakeven point on upside. We can think of any major upside reversal after break above 29294 only.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 29537, wave [2] may be completed at 29835, wave [3] may be completed at 28784 and wave [4] may be in progress.

Again within wave [4], it seems wave (a) may be completed at 29202, irregular wave (b) may be completed at 28582 and wave (c) may be in progress from 28582.

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave (c) on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and immediate important levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 28582 which I am expecting start inner wave (c) of [4] on the previous chart.

It seems an impulse completed from 28582-29058 may be wave (c) of wave [4].

From high 29058, it seems wave completed from 29058-28729 may be wave [a or 1] and wave [b or 2] may be in progress.

38%-61% retracement fro wave [b or 2] is placed at 28854-28932 which is the normal range for completion of wave [b or 2].

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty broke short/medium term downside breakeven point after breaking below 29054 and entered in medium term negative zone. So, Bank Nifty is warning cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks. Now, 29294 is short/Medium term upside breakeven point and we can think of any upside reversal after breaking above 29294 only.

For Intraday/very short term, there is a possibility of Irregular type of correction at bottom. So, Bank Nifty can decline further below 28582 as long as trading below 29058. But Bank Nifty if breaks above 29058 then further bounce towards 29202 and above can be expected.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Major support 29054 is broken and Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone, so cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 are there in coming days/weeks. So, main trading preference would by selling on every 23%-38% rise.  29294 is major resistance.

Bank Nifty can decline from present levels also but we don’t have entry levels and stoploss, so we can’t the trade in advance, we will try to look for trading opportunity during live market hour and will send updates by WhatsApp Broadcast.

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DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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