Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 17 June 2019

| June 17, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 30983, register high 31032 and declined back again by more than 500 points to register day’s low 30508 and finally closed 361 points down at 30614.

Friday, 31026-31108 was immediate resistance, 31399 was pattern negation point and decline below 30627 was expected without breaking above 31399.

Trading strategy was to buy Suitable Put in 31032-31108 range using exact stoploss of 31400 expecting decline below 30627. Bank Nifty opened at 30983, entered in immediate resistance range 31032-31108 and declined back again by more than 500 points to register low 30508. Further Live updates were sent by Whatsapp during live market hours. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240. There is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (2) and wave (3) may be completed from 26441-31783 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 30522-29742. So, 30522-29742 is the major support with 29742 as major downside breakeven point or trend reversal point. We can think of any downside reversal after breaks below 29742 only. Bank Nifty already entered in support range 30522-29742.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from all time high 31783 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 31783 which I am analyzing independently. The pattern of this decline is very complex and confusing because of repeated impulsive moves.

There is straight line decline from 31783-30623, so we can’t count its inner waves. But the personality of this decline is impulsive. This decline can be wave (a) or (1) or (c) of Irregular Correction.

Further bounce from 30623-31752 also looks like an impulsive move, we can mark it as wave (A or 1). But the later decline from 31752-30627 also looks like impulsive wave which I marked as wave (a or 1), wave completed from 30627-31399 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (c or 3), the impulse completed from 31399-30638 may be wave [a or 1], wave [b or 2] may be completed at 31036 and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

Again within wave [c or 3], it seems wave ‘1’ may be completed at 30715, wave ‘2’ may be completed at 30869 and wave ‘3’ may be completed at 30508 or still in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave ‘3’ is placed at 30645 is immediate breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30645 by more than 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 30869-31036. Otherwise, further decline is possible.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Overall, Bank Nifty is in positive zone and it can bounce for new high above 31783  as long as trading above major downside breakeven/trend reversal point 29742 [30522-29742 is major support range on downside]. We can think of any downside reversal after breaks below 29742 only.

Intraday/Very short term, 30645 is immediate breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30645 by more than 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 30869-31036. Otherwise, further decline towards 30300 and below is possible.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Overall pattern is indicating weakness with 30645 is immediate upside breakeven point and 30869-31036 as further resistance and there is possibility of further decline towards 30300 and below. So, short term trading strategy must be selling on rise whenever getting opportunity.  Light intraday buying can be done if internal pattern support.

30645 must be the trailing stoploss for any existing shorts.

So, fresh trade can be planned in resistance or near breakeven point. Any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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