Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 22 July 2019

| July 20, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 30515, registers high 30543 but didn’t sustain at higher level and declined back again by more than 800 points to registers day’s low 29705 and finally closed 660 points down at 29770.

Friday, Bank Nifty was expected to decline below 30220 in coming session as long as trading below immediate upside breakeven point 30530. We had to check pattern again if Bank Nifty breaks and stay above 30530 for 15 minutes.

Trading strategy was to sell Bank Nifty on bounce till 30530 using exact stoploss of 30571 expecting decline below 30220 in coming sessions. Bank Nifty registered high 30543 and then decline to achieve minimum target 30220, later it declined further by more than 500 points to register day’s low 29705 and finally closed at 29770. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (2) and wave (3) may be completed at 31783 and wave (4) may be in progress.

38% retracement of wave (3) is already broken after break below 29742. So, we need to concentrate at decline starting from all time high 31783.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from all time high 31783 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 31783 which I expecting start of wave (4) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 30623 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 31699 may be wave (B or 2) as Irregular Correction and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (C or 3), It seems wave completed (i),(ii),(iii),(iv)may be completed till 30870 and wave (v) may be in progress.

Wave (v) achieved minimum 61% projection after breaks below 30057 whereas next 100% projection is placed 29556 which is rare case.

Again Within wave (v), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 30334, wave [2] may be completed at 30799 and wave [3] may be completed at 29705 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement for wave [4] is placed at 29963-30122 which is the immediate upside resistance with 30122 as immediate upside breakeven point.

Overall, Bank Nifty can decline further below 29705 may be towards 29556 as long as trading below 30122. We can think of any upside reversal after breaks and stay above 30122 for 15 minute.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty broke major trend reversal/downside breakeven point 29742 but corrective pattern is not completed yet. So, we need to concentrate at the internal pattern of decline started from high to conclude further move.

For Very short term, 29963-30122 is the immediate upside resistance range with 30122 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty can one more decline towards 29705-29556 as long as trading below 30122.

29556 is immediate support. Bank Nifty can give some bounce or consolidated before breaking below 29556.

We can think of any upside reversal after breaks and stay above 30122 for 15 minute only. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Intraday/very short term trading strategy must be selling on rise near 30122 [probably in 30060-30122 range] with stoploss of 30163 (some point above 30122) expecting further decline below 29705 in coming days.

Bank Nifty if decline further near 29556 (in 29600-29550 range) then light buying can be done using exact stoploss of 29499 expecting 250-400 points bounce.

But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30122 for more than 15 minutes then we need to check fresh pattern again. So, I will observe Bank Nifty in market hour in case of breakout and will update accordingly (only to Live Updates Subscribers).

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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