Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 23 May 2019

| May 22, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 30410, declined sharply just after opening to registered low 30268 but bounced back again by more than 350 points to register day’s high 30675 and finally closed 218 points up at 30526.

Yesterday, 30406-30487 was the immediate resistance range with 30487 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to bounce further towards 30926 if breaks and stay above 30487 for 15 minute. 30008 was the downside breakeven point.

Bank Nifty future was suggested to sell during live market through WhatsApp at 30550 with stoploss 30621. Bank Nifty future decline till 30520 after entry (Trade trigged) but bounced back again and our stoploss was triggered with 70-80 points loss. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 26441.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave (i) may be completed at 27589, wave (ii) may be completed at 26617, wave (iii) may be completed at 30670, wave (iv) may be completed at 28525 and wave (v) may be completed at 30926 or still in progress.

Wave (v) achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking above 30670 and next 61%-100% projection is placed at 31138-32754 which may or may not be achieved. Bank Nifty registered high 30926 till now.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave (v) separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 28525 which I am expecting start of inner wave (v) of wave (C or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave [1] may be completed at 29036, wave [2] may be completed at 28922 and wave [3] may be completed at 30926 and wave [4] may be completed at 30266 in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [3] is placed at 30359-30008 which is immediate support with 30008 as immediate downside breakeven point. We can think of any downside reversal after breaking below 30008 only.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave [4] separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from new all time high 30926 which I am expecting start of inner wave [4] of wave (v) on the previous chart.

Wave completed from 30926-30266 seems corrective (abc) type but move after 30266-30675 also seems like Corrective (abc) till now. The pattern after 30266 is not clear yet.

From high 30675, the decline from 30675-30447 looks like an Impulse wave, I marked it as wave (a or 1). Later pattern is not clear.

Overall we can’t get any confident outlook from this chart, we need to observe further move for clarity.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Overall wave counts are indicating that Bank Nifty is in positive zone and has possibility to bounce further towards 31138-32754 with 30359-30008 as immediate downside support. Bank Nifty already entered in support range 30359-30008.

On downside, we can think of any downside reversal after breaks below 30008 only. Bank Nifty can decline towards 28500 again if trades and stay below 30008.

Tomorrow is biggest event to drive market, can’t say about downside but 32754 can be assumed as maximum upper end.

Very Short term/Intraday outlook is not clear, it will be updated during live market hours through WhatsApp.

Trading Strategy:  

A corrective pattern must complete in 30359-30008 range for bounce towards 31138-32754 but pattern of correction is not clear, so we can’t say if corrective pattern completed or not. So, need to wait for completion of corrective pattern before 30008 or need to wait for other positive pattern to buy. We can thing of selling after break below 30008 only.

Overall, we need to observe move during live market hours tomorrow to decide confident trade. So, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels will be notified during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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