Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 25 March 2019 Onwards

| March 24, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 29920, bounced further to register fresh new all time high 30008 but didn’t sustain at higher level and declined back again by more than 450 points to register low 29508 and finally closed 249 points down at 29582.

Friday, 28789 was immediate downside breakeven point and Bank Nifty was expected to bounce further towards 29885-30070 without breaking lower below 29789. But 30070 was a good resistance from where a small or big correction was expected without breaking higher above 30070.

No particular trade was suggested but mentioned conditions that “Intraday buying can be done near 29789 for targets range 29885-30070” OR “Low risk selling can be done either near 30070 or after trading below 29789 for 15 minutes” and Stoploss for the trade should not be more than 83 points in any case. Bank Nifty registered high 30008 and declined by almost 500 points from day’s high. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 26441.

100%-123% projection for wave (C or 3) is placed at 29955-30784 which is the normal range for completion of wave (c or 3). Bank Nifty achieved 30008 till now.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave completed at 27530 may be wave (1), wave (2) may be completed at 26617 as Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be completed at 30008 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement for progress of wave (3) is placed at 29207-28712 which is the support range and same 28712 is the short term downside breakeven point and we can think of any bigger reversal after breaking below 28712 only.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from all time high 30008 on separate lowest time frame chart to check next immediate move.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move high 30008.

It seems wave (a or 1) may be completed at 29672, wave (b or 2) may be completed at 29844 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 29844.

100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 29508-29428 which is the normal range for completion of wave (c or 3).

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave 1,2,3 may be completed till 29508 and wave 4 may be completed at 29623 or still in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 29636 which is the immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29636 by more than 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 29844.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty still in positive zone in short term as long as trading above short term breakeven point 28712. Any bigger downward reversal we can expect after breaking below 28712 only.

For Intraday/very short term, Bank Nifty can decline further below 29508 as long as trading below immediate upside breakeven point 29636. But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29636 for 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 29844.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Overall, Bank Nifty is still in bullish zone and possibility with 29207-28712 but we need to wait for decline towards this support range to decide any positional trade.

For Intraday, Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29636 for 15 minutes then any later decline towards 29600-29550 can be used for intraday buying with stoploss of 29499 expecting bounce towards 29844-30000.

Premium of options are very high, so it is safe to trade in Bank Nifty Futures in minimum quantity with strict stoploss. Otherwise Traders who want to trade in options can buy suitable Call/Puts according to the conditions.

Disclaimer: This analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

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Also Read,

  1. Further Elliott Wave Updates of Bank Nifty for 11 March 2019 Onward
  2. Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts dated 25 February 2019
  3. Bank Nifty Can Decline Towards 26923 Very Soon
  4. Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 31 December 2018
  5. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 03 December 2018

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Category: Bank Nifty

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