Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy for 29 May 2019

| May 28, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 31711, declined sharply just after opening and register day’s low 31328 followed by sharp bounce till 31671 and finally closed 49 points down at 31597.

Yesterday, one more bounce of 500-800 point was expected from immediate support range 31431-31266. Decline towards 30564-30292 was possible if breaks and stay below 31266.

Bank Nifty entered in support range 31431-31266 and bounced back by 250-350 point till 31671. Intraday updates were sent through WhatsApp Broadcast during live market hours.  Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240. There is slight change in wave counts.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave (i), (ii), (iii),(iv) may be completed till 28525 and wave (v) may be completed at 31712 or still in progress.

Wave (v) achieved 61% projection after breaking above 31138 whereas next 100% is placed at 32754 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 28525 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move low 28525 which I am expecting start of inner wave (v) of (C or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave [1] may be completed at 29036, wave [2] may be completed at 28922, wave [3] may be completed at 31705, wave [4] may be completed at 30292 and wave [5] may be in progress.

Wave [5] achieved minimum 31705 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 32257 which may or may not be achieved.

Within wave [5], it seems wave [i],[ii],[iii],[iv] may be completed till 31328 and wave [v] may be in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 31807-32205 which is the minimum target range for completion of wave [v].

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from 31328 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move low 31328 which I am expecting start of inner wave [v] of [5] on the previous chart.

It seems wave 1 may be completed at 31386, wave 2 may be completed at 31345, wave 3 may be completed at 31671 and wave 4 may be completed 31597 or still in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave [v] is placed at 31539 which is the immediate breakeven point. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 31870-32257 in coming sessions without breaking below 31539. But if it breaks and stay below 31539 for more than 5-10 minute can result in further decline below 31328 again.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty already bounced by 1400 points from major support 30462-29694 and is already broke All Time High 31705.  So, we need to concentrate on internal wave started after 30292 to calculate further outlook.

Intraday/Very short term, Bank Nifty is still in positive zone and has possibility to bounce further towards 31870-32257 as long as trading above immediate breakeven point 31539.

But Bank Nifty if breaks below 31539 for 5 minute can result in further decline towards next short term support 31328-31266. Short term downside reversal can be expected after break below 31266 only.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 31539 is the immediate breakeven point and Bank Nifty has possibility to bounce further towards 31870-32257 as long as trading above 31539. Same 31539 can be used as trailing stoploss for any existing longs.

Confident selling can be done after break below 31266 only for targets 30564-30292. Entry levels and stoploss for selling can be calculated after breakdown only.

Option premium is back to normal now, so trades can be done by buying suitable options according to levels and trend.

Any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be notified during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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