Bank Nifty Outlook for 23 Sep 2019 Onward – EW Analysis

| September 22, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher 26878, registered low 26727 and bounced back by huge 2600 points to registered day’s high 29418 and finally closed 2223 points up at 28981.

Friday, 26937 was immediate upside breakeven point and Bank Nifty was expected to decline further towards 26560-26490-26103. But further bounce towards 27414 was expected after staying above 26937 for 15 minutes.

Trading strategy was to sell Bank Nifty in 26850-26937 range using exact stoploss of 27977. Bank Nifty declined by 150 points from selling range but bounced back sharply to trigger stoploss. Upside reversal was expected after break above 27937 but move was so sharp that it didn’t give chance to buy. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24240. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

Wave completed from 24240-31783 seems corrective (abc) type, so either it is wave (1) of ED (Ending diagonal Triangle) or wave (B) of irregular Correction.

From high 31783, It seems wave completed from 31783-30623 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 31699 may be wave (B or 2) as Irregular Correction and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 27392.

38% retracement of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29022 which is already broken once. But, there are abnormalities within the bounce after 27392, so we need to analyze the move after 27392 on separate lowest possible time frame.

This is hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move after 28602 which I am analyzing independently.

The bounce after 27392-28602 looks like corrective (abc) but if we assume wave (iv) completed at 28602 then wave (v) from 28602-26560 didn’t complete its pattern. The decline from 28602-26560 looks corrective whereas wave (v) is always Impulse or Ending Diagonal Triangle.

So, we need to concentrate at bounce started from low 26560 to calculate further outlook until we get clarity in overall pattern.

From low 26560, it seems wave completed at 28277 may be wave [A or 1], wave completed at 26641 may be wave [B or 2] and wave [C or 3] may be in progress.

Within wave [C or 3], wave (1) may be completed at 28126, wave (2) may be completed at 26643 and wave (3) may be complete at 29418 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 28763-28357 which is immediate support range with 28357 as immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 28357 for more than 15 minute then further decline towards 26643 is possible in coming sessions. Otherwise, Bank Nifty can bounce further above 29418 if fails to break below 28357.

Now, let’s have a separate look at bounce started after 26643 to check its pattern on lowest possible time frame.

This is 05 minutes time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 26643 which I am expecting start of wave (3) of wave [C or 3] on hourly chart.

It seems an Impulse is completed from 26643-29418 as I marked on chart. But it is not always possible to count inner waves within sharp move, so counts have possibility to be wrong.

But no matter if wave [C or 3] completed at 29418 or still in progress, 28763-28357 will be support in both the cases.

Conclusion and Outlook:- 

Overall, Bank Nifty is in positive zone as major upside breakeven point 28602 is broken but (abc) pattern from 28602-26560 left a question mark. So, we can’t say confidently if bigger reversal is happened. We need to concentrate internal pattern and internal levels to calculate further move.

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 28763-28357 is immediate support range with 28357 as immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty has possibility of one more bounce above 29418 as long as trading above 28357.

But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 28357 for more than 15 minute then further decline towards 26643 is possible in coming sessions. We need to keep all these conditions in mind before deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

We have 28763-28357 as immediate support, either we can buy in support with stoploss below 28357 or we can sell after staying below 28357 for more than 15 minutes. But exact confident trade can’t be decided right now because Support Range and Stoploss is very big.

We can decide a confident low risk trade after observing the pattern of decline in 28763-28357 range only. I will observe Bank Nifty during live market hours and will update to “Live Update Subscribers” if get any confident trading opportunity during live market hours.

Otherwise, traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions and levels explained in conclusion.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be

updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

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Category: Bank Nifty

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