Elliot Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for 10 August 2020

| August 9, 2020

Bank Nifty opened lower at 21620, declined further to register low 21451 but bounced back again by more than 300 points to register day’s high 21787 and closed 111 points up at 21754.

Friday, breaking above 21608 was indicating bounce towards 21791-21926 again and 21608-21565 was intraday/immediate support range.

Bank Nifty traded below 21565 at opening only. So the levels mentioned in the analysis report were not valid anymore. No live update was sent during live market hours because the internal pattern was not clear. Now, let’s have a fresh look at the latest charts for further scenarios.

This analysis report is covering decline started from all-time high 32613 which I am analyzing independently in my last analysis report Bank Nifty Analysis, Outlook and Important levels on All Time Frame Charts

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is the Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline after all-time high 32613 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave [1] completed at 30209, wave [2] may be completed at 31649 as big Irregular Correction, wave [3] may be completed at 21351, wave [4] may be completed at 25670 and wave [5] may be completed at 16116.

This impulse completed from 32613-16116 can be wave [A] or ([C] of Irregular Correction).

From low 16116, It seems a corrective wave (A) may be completed at 21462, wave (B) may be completed at 17105 as Irregular Correction and wave (C) may be completed at 23211.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (C) is placed at 21769-20878 which is short term support range and Bank Nifty is in the positive zone as long as trading above 20878. We can think of any major fall/decline after breaks and stay below 20878 only. Bank Nifty is still in this support range.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from high 23211 separately on the lowest possible time frame to check its pattern.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline after 23211 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (a or 1) may be completed at 22667, wave (b or 2) may be completed at 23122 and wave (c or 3) may be completed at 21031.

23%-38% retracement for wave (c or 3) is placed at 21524-21829 which is already broken and Bank Nifty traded above 21829 for 30 minutes. Bank Nifty was indicating bounce towards 22346-22757-23000 with support at 21829-21524 but Bank Nifty didn’t bounce and traded around this support for 2-3 sessions.

Bank Nifty broke 21524 for several times but didn’t stay below 21524 even for a single time. So, Bank Nifty can be assumed in the positive zone as long as trading above 21524 on 30 minutes closing basis.

Now, let’s analyze the bounce started from low 21031 separately on the lowest possible time frame to check its pattern and to calculate immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 21031 which I am analyzing independently. The pattern on this chart is tough to understand but still, I tried to mark most probable wave counts, although confidence is low.

It seems an impulsive wave completed from 21031-21936 which may be wave [a or 1] and wave [b or 2] may be in progress.

Within wave [b or 2], it seems 1st [abc] wave cycle may be completed from 21936-21449, wave (X) may be completed from 21449-21926 and 2nd [abc] wave cycle may be in progress from 21926.

Again within 2nd [abc] wave cycle, it seems wave [a] may be completed at 21451 and wave [b] may be completed at 21787 or still in progress.

100%-123% projection for wave [c] is placed at 21312-21199 which is the normal target range for completion of wave [c] if wave [b] is already completed at 21787.

The pattern on this chart is tough to understand right now. But Bank Nifty if decline towards 21312-21199 then we can identify further move after calculating immediate resistance and immediate upside breakeven point, otherwise we need to wait for clarity.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

For short/medium term, 21769-20878 is major support and 20878 major downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty is in the positive zone as long as trading above 20878 and has the possibility to bounce towards 23211-23975 in comings days if holds 20878. Two consecutive closing below 20878 can result in major downside reversal towards 17105-16116.

For very short term, Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 21829 for 30 minutes can result in bounce towards 22346-22757-23000 with 21524 as immediate support. Otherwise, we need to wait for a decline towards 21312-21199 to calculate further move.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding the next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 21829 for more than 30 minutes then trading strategy would be Buying on Dips in 21829-21524 range with stoploss below 21524 expecting bounce towards 22346-22757-23000. If Bank Nifty fails to stay above 21829 for more than 30 minutes then we need to wait for a decline towards 21312-21199 to decide the next trade.

Further, we will update about the formation of any important internal pattern or any change in trend/pattern/important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point during market hours by WhatsApp Broadcast to all my “Bank Nifty Live Updates” subscribers.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities, and expected market behavior based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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