Elliott wave analysis of Bank Nifty after union budget 2018

| February 2, 2018 | 0 Comments

Bank Nifty opened lower at 27334, bounced to registers high 27575 but declined back again to register low 27046 followed by bounced of more than 500 points to register high 27613 and finally closed 158 points down at 27229. Overall, it was a huge volatile days with wild swings.

Yesterday, I had mentioned that overall short term outlook of Bank Nifty is still positive as long as trading above breakeven point 26727 and 27080-26727 is the range where Bank Nifty can find support. I also mentioned that Bank Nifty can show one more decline for low below 27143 before without breaking above 27652.

And I suggested selling Bank Nifty in 27542-27600 range with exact stoploss of 27653 expecting targets 27143. Bank Nifty declined from 27575 to 27046 and gave more than 500 points profit. Let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report “Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018”

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3]. This is the same chart with explanation which I posted in previous report because there is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii],[iv] may be completed till 23611 and wave [v] may be in progress from 23611.

Wave [v] achieved its 38% projection placed at 26511 whereas 61% projection placed at 28302 which may or may not achieve.

Within wave [v], it seems wave (1) may be completed at 25953, wave (2) may be completed at 24617 and wave (3) may be in progress from 24617.

Wave (3) achieved its 100% projection placed at 26959 whereas 161% is placed at 28406 which may or may not achieve. Bank Nifty achieved minimum 27522 till now.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave (3) started from low 24617 on separate lowest possible time frame chart to check its pattern.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 24617 which is the start of wave (3) of wave [V] on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 24617-25780 may be wave (i), wave completed from 25780-25232 may be wave (ii), wave completed from 25232-27652 may be wave (iii) and wave (iv) may be completed at 27046 or still in progress.

Normal 23%-38% retracement of the progress of wave (iii) is placed at 27080-26727 where Bank Nifty can find support for further bounce towards new high above 27652. Same 26727 can be referred as Medium Term Breakeven point below which any big downward reversal is possible. Bank Nifty already entered in support range and registered low 27046.

So, we need to analyze the progress of wave (iv) started from 27652 on separate lowest possible time frame chart to check its pattern.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Minute chart

This is 5 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 27652 which is the start of wave (iv) of (3) on the previous chart.

Normally, it seems wave (iv) is already completed with decline from 27652-27116 wave (A), wave completed from 27116-27575 may be wave (B) and wave (C) may be completed at 27046.

From low 27046, bounce from 27046-27613 may be wave [1], wave [2] may be completed at 27166 or still in progress. Wave [2] already achieved 78% retracement but its inner waves are not identifiable because of sharp swings.

Other possibility: There is also a possibility that wave (B) completed at 27613 as Irregular Correction and wave (C) still needs to complete below 27046. Bank Nifty can register one more low below 27046 in this case.

Conclusion and Outlook:

Bank Nifty moved exactly as we expected and move was calculate exactly even at the time of very important even like budget. Suggested trade also gave more than 400-500 points’ profit.

Now, pattern of the decline from 27652 seems corrective so one more bounce above 27652 is expected in coming days. But support is placed at 27046-26727. So any decline towards support is a buying opportunity with stoploss below 26727.

Short term levels cannot be calculated because of sharp swings today and it can be calculated only after seeing stability in market.

Trading Strategy:

Any decline in 27046-27000 range can be bought using stoploss of 26967 expecting targets above 27652 in coming days. Actual stoploss is 26727 which is big, so one can use stoploss of 26967 which is 80-90 points from entry level. Trade can be done in 26900 Call of 08 Feb expiry.

Bank Nifty can also bounce straight way from present levels but trade cannot be decided at this point of time.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty before 25 January 2018 Expiry
  2. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Towards 27055-27445 Before January 2018 Expiry
  3. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 18 January 2018 Onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry
  9. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward
  10.  Bank Nifty can Bounce Above 25198 Again in Medium Term
  11.  Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onward
  12. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  13. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  16. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  17. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  18. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Session

Contact me:

Emailewavinod@gmail.com

Call: 9796033671

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Website: www.ewanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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