Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty [NEAR GUJARAT ELECTIONS RESULT]

| December 15, 2017 | 0 Comments

Bank Nifty opened higher at 25062 and declined back to register low 24888 but bounced back again by more than 300 points to register high 25205 and finally closed 167 points up at 25168.

Yesterday, decline towards 24938-24813 was expected and 25062 was breakeven point for upside. I suggested if Bank Nifty “trades below tomorrow’s opening price at 9:31 AM (15 minutes after opening)” then any nearby “in the money put” of 14 Dec Expiry can be bought using stoploss of day’s high made till 9:31 AM and hold for intraday. Book profit or trailing stoploss whenever seeing reasonable profit.

Bank Nifty traded below opening price at 9:31 AM [traded in 25011-25042 range] and declined by about 120 points till 24888 without breaking high made 25064 till 9:31 AM. 25100 Put bounced from 95 to 196 and was giving almost double profit. Now, we need to analyze latest charts for next move.

This report is covering Bank Nifty move after 12 Oct 2017 from low 23611 and earlier wave counts are explained in my last previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Hourly chart

This is 5 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 23611. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave completed from 23611-24872 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 24872-23916 may be wave (B or 2) and wave completed from 23916-25953 may be wave (C or 3).

There are confusions on this chart because wave is overlapped and inner waves of (A or 1) are not clear. On the other hand, we are not clear if wave (B or 2) is Irregular Correction or not.

So, I am ignoring this chart for a while and will concentrate on the pattern of decline started from 25953 for short term moves. Now, we need to analyze the decline started from high 25953 on separate lowest possible time frame chart.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty Covering move from high 25953.

It seems wave completed from 25953-25797 may be wave (i), wave completed from 25797-25873 may be wave (ii), wave completed from 25873-24947 may be wave (iii), wave completed from 24947-25217 may be wave (iv) as Irregular Correction and wave (v) may be completed at 25813. Overall Impulsive wave completed from 25953-24813 may be wave (A or 1) or wave(C) of Irregular correction.

And from low 24813, it seems wave completed from 24813-25448 may be wave (a or 1), wave completed from 25270-24888 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 24888.

100%-123% projection for wave (c or 3) is placed at 25523-25672 which is the possible range on upside for completion of wave (c or 3) if wave (b or 2) is already completed at 24888.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 24888 on separate lowest possible time frame chart.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Minute chart

This is 5 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24888 which is the start of wave (c or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 24888-25077 may be wave [1], wave completed from 25077-24994 may be wave [2] and wave [3] may be in progress from 24994.

38% retracement of the progress of wave [3] is placed at 25124 which can be referred as breakeven point and stoploss for any longs.

Conclusion and Outlook: 

Bank Nifty declined till 24888 [As expected 24938-24813 range] and bounced back again by about 300 points to register high 25205 and wave counts on the chart are indicating that Bank Nifty still has  possibility to bounce further towards 25523-25672 for completion of expected wave (c or 3).

And 25155-25124 is the range from where Bank Nifty can find support for further bounce towards 25523-25672. 25124 is referred as breakeven point for downside and same can be used as stoploss for any longs.

Trading Strategy:

Outlook is bullish for short term but Options Premium is very high which is making it risky to buy options. Even 200-300 points move in favour may not give reasonable profit and risk reward is not good. Only hedge trade is safe in these conditions.

Options Hedge Trade:  25500 Call of 21 Dec Expiry (trading at 170) can be bought and 25800 Call of same expiry (trading at 85) can be sold in same quantity and hold till next update. Maximum loss is 85 points if Bank Nifty closed anywhere below 25500 and maximum Profit is 200-215 points if bank Nifty bounces above 25800.

Otherwise if anyone wants to trade by their own experience can trade by using 25124 as breakeven point and stoploss for longs can be placed some points below 25124.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 11 December 2017 Onward
  2. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  3. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  4. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry
  5. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward
  6.  Bank Nifty can Bounce Above 25198 Again in Medium Term
  7.  Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  10. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  11. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  12. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  14. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Sessions

Contact me:

Emailewavinod@gmail.com

Call: 9796033671

WhatsApp: 9796033671

Website: www.ewanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: , ,

Category: Bank Nifty

About the Author ()

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *