Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts dated 08 October 2018

| October 7, 2018

Bank Nifty declined by more than 4000 points within last 1 month (From 28-Aug-2018 to 05-Oct-2018) and decline is very sharp. Bank Nifty declined from all time high 28388 and registered low 24250 till now. And it has been 06 months before I had prepared my last analysis report on all time frames. So, this weakened I again decided to look at all time frames to conclude future possibilities.

This analysis report is covering move from life time low 3314 and is further update on my previous long term analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frames Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Monthly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Monthly chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering life time move from low 3314.

It seems wave (1) may be completed at 13303, wave (2) may be completed at 8866 as Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be in progress from 8866 on largest time frame chart.

Within wave (3), it seems inner waves (i) may be completed at 20907, wave (ii) may be completed at 13407 and wave (iii) may be in progress from 13407.

Again within wave (iii) of (3), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 20575, wave [2] may be completed at 17606, wave [3] may be completed at 28388 and wave [4] may be in progress from 28388.

Wave [4] of (iii) is retraced deeper than 38% retracement after breaking below 24269 (register low 24250 till now). Wave [4] can retrace more than 38% but can never overlap wave [1]. So, end of wave [1] is 20575 which is the pattern negation point for short/medium term and Bank Nifty if breaks below pattern negation point 20575 then whole pattern started from 13407 will negate.

Overall in all the cases, Bank Nifty is still within wave (3) on larger time frame which indicates that it still has long way to go on larger time frame, although small corrections are expected in between.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This monthly chart can help in suggesting trend for larger time frames but is not going to help in calculating any confident levels for short/medium term trade.

So, we need to analyze the progress of very last decline after all time high 28388 separately on lowest possible time frame which I am expecting wave [4] of (iii) of (3) on Hourly chart.

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting start of wave [4] of wave (iii) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 28388-26555 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 26555-27205 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave (1) may be completed at 26239, wave (2) may be completed at 26485, wave (3) may be completed at 24678, wave (4) may be completed at 25525 and wave (5) may be in progress.

Wave (5) achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking below 24559 whereas next 61%-100% projection placed at 23963-22998 which may or may not be achieved.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 25378 which is the short term breakeven point on upside and we can think of any big upside reversal after breaking above 25378 only.

Now, we need to analyze wave (5) started from 25525 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern/immediate counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 25525 which I am expecting start of inner wave (5) of (C or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 25525-24707 may be wave [a or 1], wave completed from 24707-25470 may be wave [b or 2] and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

Within wave [c or 3], it seems wave [1],[2],[3],[4] and wave [5] may be completed at 24250 or still in progress.

Wave [5] achieved minimum 38%-61% projection after breaking below 24401 and next 100% is placed at 24111 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze wave [5] of [c or 3] started from 25080 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern/immediate counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 25080 which I am expecting start of inner wave [5] of [c or 3] on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 25080-24631 may be wave [i], wave completed from 24631-24948 may be wave [ii] and wave [iii] may be completed at 24250 or still in progress.

38% retracement of the progress of wave [iii] is placed at 24516 which is the immediate resistance/breakeven point on upside. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above24516 then further bounce towards 24900-25100 can be expected. Otherwise, Bank Nifty if fails to breaks above 24516 or consolidate below 24516 can result in further fall further by 320-500 points (38%-61% projection for wave [v] of [5]).

Conclusion and Outlook:

Bank Nifty declined by 4000 points in quick time and there is no sign of reversal yet. Bank Nifty is still in negative zone and 25378 is breakeven point on upside. Any reversal can be expected after break above 25378 only. 23963-22998 is support on downside and 20575 is pattern negation point.

For Intraday/very short term, 24516 is the immediate resistance and breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 24516 for 15 minutes then further bounce for 24900-25100 can be expected otherwise further fall of 320-500 points is possible.

Trading Strategy:

As I said earlier, Bank Nifty is very Volatile, Implied volatility is very high and options are expensive. Options premium may not rise even on 200-300 point movement as you observed last week. So, trading in options is not rewarding in current scenario. Those who still want to trade can trade in out of money options in very light quantity.

So, Bank Nifty if get near 24450-24516 then any suitable Put of 11 Oct expiry which is trading around 60 can be bought using stoploss of 27 expecting 320-500 points decline. Be quick in booking profit whenever seeing reasonable profit because Volatility is very high.

Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 24516 for 15 minutes then further bounce for 24900-25100 can also be expected, so traders can act accordingly.

Otherwise, traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

Disclaimer: This analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

 

Contact me:
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Category: Bank Nifty

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