Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts dated 25 February 2019

| February 24, 2019

It has been 05 months before I had prepared my last analysis report on all time frames chart. So, this weakened I again decided to look at all time frames to identify the changes and to conclude future possibilities.

Friday, 26970 was the immediate breakeven point on downside and Bank Nifty was expected to decline further towards 26761-26617 if breaks and stay below immediate breakeven point 26970 by more than 15 minute.

Trading strategy was to hold Bank Nifty 26800 Put of 28 Feb expiry bought in 26999-27052 range (Thursday) using exact stoploss 27141 expecting decline towards 26617-26406 in coming days. Bank Nifty decline till 26847 whereas 26800 Put of 28 Feb expiry registered high 130 and finally closed at 117.  Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering move from life time low 3314 and is further update on my previous long term analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frames Dated 08 October 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Monthly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Monthly chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering life time move from low 3314.

It seems wave (1) may be completed at 13303, wave (2) may be completed at 8866 as Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be in progress from 8866 on largest time frame chart.

Within wave (3), it seems inner waves (i) may be completed at 20907, wave (ii) may be completed at 13407 and wave (iii) may be in progress from 13407.

Again within wave (iii) of (3), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 20575, wave [2] may be completed at 17606, wave [3] may be completed at 27652 and wave [4] or [5] may be in progress.

38% retracement for wave [4] is placed at 23814 which is still short/medium term breakeven point on downside.

38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 28077-30448 if wave [4] is already completed at 24240. So, 28388-30448 is the minimum expected range for completion of wave [5] in this case.

Overall in all the cases, Bank Nifty is still within wave (3) on larger time frame which indicates that it still has long way to go on larger time frame as long as trading above 23814, although small corrections are expected in between.

This monthly chart can help in suggesting trend for larger time frames but is not going to help in calculating any confident levels for short/medium term trade.

So, we need to analyze the progress of very last bounce started from 24240 separately on lowest possible time frame which I am expecting wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of (3) on Hourly 05 Hourly chart.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

Its seems wave completed at 25915 may be wave [i], wave completed at 24353 may be wave [ii], wave [iii] may be completed at 27754, wave [iv] may be completed at 26441 and wave [v] may be in progress from 26441.

38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 27783-28612 which is the minimum expected target range for completion of wave [v].

From low 26441, it seems an impulse completed from 26441-27589 may be wave (A or 1) and wave (B or 2) may be in progress from 27589. But, wave (B or 2) retraced more that 80% and same is point of confusion.

So, we need to analyze the decline started from high 27589 [expected wave (B or 2)] on separate lowest time frame chart to check inner/immediate counts and to calculate immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 27589 which I am expecting start of wave (B or 2) (with confusion) on the previous chart. There is bit change in wave counts.

It seems wave completed from 27589-27356 may be wave (i), wave completed from 27356-27538 may be wave (ii), wave completed from 27538-27635 may be wave (iii), wave (iv) may be completed at 27100 as complex correction and wave (v) may be in progress from 27100.

38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 26735-26510 but earlier low is 26617. So, 26617-26510 is the minimum expected range for completion of wave (v) in this case.

Within wave (v), it seems wave 3, 4 is completed and 5 may be in progress. Completion of wave 5 may be complete inner wave [1] of (v).

38%-61% retracement of progress of wave [1] is placed at 26943-27003, so 26943-27003 is immediate resistance on upside.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For long/medium term, Bank Nifty is still in positive zone as long as trading above 23814 (38% retracement of wave [3] on Monthly chart] and any major downward reversal can be expected after breaking below 23814 only.

For very short term, Bank Nifty is in negative zone and can decline further towards 26761-26617 as long as trading below resistance 27100. Same 26943-27003 is the immediate resistance range but there is no upside breakeven point.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Bank Nifty 26800 Put of 28 Feb expiry bought in 26999-27052 range (Thursday) can be hold with fresh stoploss of 26901 for Monday and hold for next day only if closed below 26750. I suggested small stoploss because premium can decrease drastically if Bank Nifty bounces towards 26943-27003, Bank Nifty already declined 150 points from entry levels but premium has not increased yet.

Fresh Put of 27000-27100 strike can be bought if get Bank Nifty in 27003-27100 range using stoploss of 27111 expecting decline towards 26761-26617 in coming days.

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in this scenario, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained.

And remember, weekly options are very volatile and premium fluctuates drastically. So, always try to book part/full whenever seeing reasonable profit because any consolidation for couple of days can eat options premium drastically.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

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Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty Can Decline Towards 26923 Very Soon
  2. Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 31 December 2018
  3. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 03 December 2018     
  4. Bank Nifty can Decline by 450-700 Points Before 26431
  5. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 15 November 2018 Onward

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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