Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry

| June 28, 2018

Bank Nifty opened flat at 26616, declined just after opening by more than 250 points to register day’s low 26336 and finally closed 178 points down at 26423.

Yesterday, Bank Nifty was expected to bounce towards 26712 and above with 26546 as pattern negation point. Otherwise, there was a possibility of decline towards 26364-26224-26069 if breaks below 26546. So, any dip towards 26224-26069 was suggested as buying opportunity with small risk.

Trading strategy was to buy Bank Nifty 27000 Call of 26 July expiry if get in 26224-26089 range with exact stoploss of 26059 expecting 26806-27164 in coming days. But Bank Nifty declined till 26336 and trade was not activated. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts for further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] on the previous chart. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

If I am right at identifying the pattern then wave [v] must complete above 27652 (minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 26505-28296 but earlier top is 27652 so 27652-28296 is the minimum range for completion of wave [v]) in comings weeks/months. But if am wrong at identifying wave [iv] as Irregular Correction then we can see one more decline below 23605.

So let’s look at the pattern of bounce started from 23605 if it carries the personalities of wave [v] or not.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 5 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce from 23605 which I had marked as start of inner wave [v] of wave [3] on the previous chart. This is again the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

From low 23605, it seems wave completed at 24666 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 27164.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 25988 which is the short term breakeven point below which we can think of any big downside reversal. Bank Nifty achieved 26069 till now.

But if wave (3) completed at 27164 and (4) completed at 26069 then wave (5) needs to complete higher above 27164.

Now, we need to concentrate on decline started from 27164 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate immediate moves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 27164.

The decline from high 27164-26069 looks like corrective wave (abc) but later bounce from 26069-26766 also looks like a [abc] corrective wave and next decline from 26765-26224 also looks like (abc). So, there is a possibility that Wave (4) may be completed from 27164-26069 as Simple Zigzag (based on wave counts on 5 hourly chart) and wave (5) may be in progress as Ending diagonal triangle.

Within wave (5), [abc] move from 26069-26766 may be  wave (I) of Ending diagonal in this case and wave (II) may be progress as Complex Correction (Double Zigzag or Triple Zigzag). Wave (II) should not break below 26069 [below the start of wave (I)] if I am right as Identifying the pattern.

Within wave (II), first (abc) cycle may be completed from 26766-26224, wave (X) may be completed from 26224-26806 and 2nd (abc) cycle may be in progress. Now, we need to concentrate on progress of 2nd (abc) cycle started from 26806 on separate chart.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 5 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 26806.

It seems wave completed from 26806-26484 may be wave (a or 1), wave completed from 26484-26710 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 26710.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave completed at 26546 may be wave 1, wave completed at 26671 may be wave 2, wave completed at 26336 may be wave 3 and wave 4 may be completed at 26483 or still in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 26340-26251 but earlier low is 26336. So, 26336-26251 is the minimum expected range for completion of wave 5 if wave 4 is really completed at 26483. And 100% projection is placed at 26109.

Overall, there is still complexity in pattern but pattern of very last wave (c or 3) still seems not completed yet  so Bank Nifty can decline further towards 26336-26251 which can extend towards 26109 but should not break below 26069. So, any dips towards 26224-26069 can be used as buying opportunity with small risk. And 26069 is the pattern negation point for ED.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For Medium/Long term, there is possibility of big Irregular Correction at top, so Bank Nifty is still in medium/long term positive zone and there is possibility for new high above 27652 either from present levels or from 23611-22998. This upside rally must be sharp because of Irregular Correction and it is sharp till now. But we still not confirmed if bottom is already made or pending because pattern at bottom is not completely clear.

For short term, there is still complexity in pattern at this moment due to which it is very difficult to predict/suggest any confident counts. But pattern of very last wave (c or 3) still seems not completed yet  so Bank Nifty can decline further towards 26336-26251 which can extend towards 26109 but should not breaking below 26069. So, any dips towards 26224-26069 can be used as buying opportunity with small risk. And 26069 is the pattern negation point for ED.

Otherwise Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 26483 for 15 minute then further bounce can be expected and same 26483 can be used as stoploss for any existing shorts.

25988 is the short term breakeven point on downside below which we can think of any bigger reversal.

Trading Strategy:  

According to conditions on charts:

Bank Nifty if get in 26224-26069 range then Bank Nifty 27000 call of 26 July expiry  can be bought using stoploss of 26059 (some points below 26069) expecting 26806-27164 as targets in coming days. Exit the trade if stoploss triggers.

A complex correction in progress and it is very difficult to identify inner waves of Complex correction because it can take any shape. So, trade in light quantity, protect whenever getting reasonable profit and avoid taking any big risk.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  2. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  3. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  4. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  5. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  6. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  9. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry
  10. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward
  11.  Bank Nifty can Bounce Above 25198 Again in Medium Term
  12.  Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onward
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  14. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  15. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  16. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  17. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  18. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  19. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Session

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Category: Bank Nifty

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