Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 05 March 2018 Onward

| March 4, 2018 | 0 Comments

Bank Nifty opened lower at 25022, registers low 25002 and bounced back sharply just after opening to register high 25226 but didn’t sustain at that level and declined back by more than 300 points to register low 24854 and finally closed 204 points down at 24902.

Thursday, for short term, I had mentioned that 25200 can be referred as immediate breakeven point above which we can expect further bounce and also mentioned that if the bounce from 24942 to 25192 is actually wave (c) then Bank Nifty can give one more decline below 24942.

I did not suggested any particular trade for Thursday but given condition “if Bank Nifty fails to breaks above 25192-25200 in first hour then shorts can be taken with stoploss above 25200 for target below 24942” [But trade must be initiated only if getting opportunity with 70-80 points stoploss and if 24942 is not achieved].

Bank Nifty opened at 25022, bounced to register high 25226 and declined back again to register low 24854 and finally closed at 24902. Now, we need to analyze latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report “Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018”

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3].

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii],[iv] may be completed till 23611 and wave [v] may be in progress from 23611. Wave [v] achieved its 38% projection placed at 26511 whereas 61% projection placed at 28302 which may or may not achieve.

Within wave [v] after 23611, the bounce is combination of repeated (ABC) waves. So, either there is Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern in progress or it is Irregular Correction at top. Exact pattern is not yet clear, so we need to concentrate on the decline started from 27652 until we get clarity.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline from 27652.

Normally it seems that the decline started from high 27652 is impulsive with wave 1 completed at 27116, wave 2 may be completed at 27613, wave 3 may be completed at 25023, wave 4 may be completed at 26140 and wave 5 may be completed at 24781.

38%-61% retracement of this impulse [from 27652-24781] is placed at 25877-26555 if it is wave (A) completed at 24781.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 24781 on separate lowest possible time frame chart to check its pattern.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24781.

The bounce started from low 24781 is sharp and carrying the personality of impulse. This impulse can be wave (a) or (c) of any Irregular Correction. The later decline is also not giving any hint. So, let’s concentrate on decline after 25723 if we can identify something.

From high 25723, It seems wave completed from 25723-25429 may be wave (a or 1), wave completed from 25429-25534 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 25534.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave (i) may be completed at 25452, wave (ii) may be completed at 25520, wave (iii) may be completed at 24995, wave (iv) may be completed at 25226 as Irregular Correction and wave (v) may be in progress from 25226.

Wave (v) achieved its minimum 38%-61% projection whereas 100% placed at 24687 which may or may not be achieved.

Within wave (v), it seems wave [1],[2] may be completed till 25148 and wave [3] may be completed at 24854 or still in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave (v) is placed at 24996 which can be referred as immediate breakeven point on upside and 25030 is the pattern negation point, if Bank Nifty break above this point then the pattern will negate and we’ll need to check again pattern. Otherwise Bank Nifty can decline further towards 24854 and below in coming days.

Conclusion and Outlook:

Wave counts and outlook of Bank Nifty still indicating decline below 24854 because Bank Nifty achieved its minimum projection on downside [for wave (v) of (c or 3) ] but pattern does not seem completed yet. So, Bank Nifty can decline further towards 24854 which further can extend towards 24687 in coming days.

24996 can be referred as immediate breakeven point and 25030 is the pattern negation point, Bank Nifty breaking above this point can bounce towards 25226 and we needed to check the pattern again. Same 25030 can be used as stoploss for short.

Note: Breakeven point 24996 will change if Bank Nifty breaks below 24854 and pattern negation point 25030 will not be valid if Bank Nifty completed [5] was from 25226. So, both breakeven point and pattern negation point is valid if Bank Nifty bounces from present levels without breaking below 24854. This breakeven point and pattern negation is subjected to change if Bank Nifty breaks below 24854.

Trading Strategy:

Bank Nifty if get in range 24996-25030 without breaking below 24854 then buy 25100 Put of 8 Mar expiry with exact stoploss of 25031 expecting minimum target 24854 which further can extend towards 24687 in coming days. Exit trade if Bank Nifty even touches 25031. This trade will not be valid if Bank Nifty breaks below 24854.

Bank Nifty if break above pattern negation 25030 then further bounce of 200-300 point (till 25226) is expected but we can’t decide any upside trade at this point of time. But trade can be decided after seeing the personality of breakout only.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. “Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018”
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  3. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  4. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  5. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward
  7.  Bank Nifty can Bounce Above 25198 Again in Medium Term
  8.  Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onward
  9. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  10. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  11. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  12. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  13. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  15. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Session

Contact me:

Email: ewavinod@gmail.com
Call: 9796033671
WhatsApp: 9796033671
Website: www.ewanalyst.com

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Category: Bank Nifty

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