Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward

| June 6, 2018

Bank Nifty opened flat at 26263, registered high 26342 and declined back again by more than 250 points to register day’s low 26069 followed by a bounce of almost 220 points and finally closed 6 point down at 26251.

Yesterday, I had mentioned that 26103-25988 was support range on downside. So, Bank Nifty can bounce by minimum 200-350 points from this range and 26403-26526 was resistance range on upside and any bigger bounce can be expected after break above 26526 only.

Bank Nifty 26200 Call of 07 June expiry was suggested to buy in 26050-25988 range with exact stoploss of 25959 expecting 200-350 points bounce. Bank Nifty opened at 26263, bounced till 26342 and declined back again to register low 26069 [entered in support range] followed by a bounce of almost 220 points as expected [Bank Nifty 26200 call of 7 June expiry bounced from 129-260 and finally close at 190] . Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] on the previous chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

If I am right at identifying the pattern then wave [v] must complete above 27652 in comings weeks/months. But if am wrong at identifying wave (iv) as Irregular Correction then we can see one more decline below 23605.

So, let’s concentrate on move after all time high 27652 if we can identify something else.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Hourly chart

This is 5 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering decline from 27652 which I had marked as start of inner wave (C) of Irregular Correction.

It seems an impulse completed from 27652-23605 and this impulsive decline started from 27652 we are expecting as wave (C) of Irregular Correction. So let’s look at the pattern of bounce started from 23605 if it carries the personalities of wave (v) or not.

From low 23605, it seems wave completed at 24666 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 27164.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 25988 which is the short term breakeven point below which we can think of any big downside reversal. Bank Nifty achieved 26069 till now.

Now, we need to concentrate on decline started from 27164 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate immediate moves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 27164.

It seems wave completed from 27164-26703 may be wave (a or 1), wave completed from 26703-27047 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be completed at 26069 or still in progress

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 26299-26442 which is immediate resistance range on upside and 26442 is breakeven point.

From low 26069, it seems wave completed at 26293 may be wave [a or 1], wave completed at 26093 may be wave [b or 2] and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

25988 [38% retracement of wave (C or 3)] is still breakeven point for downside below which we can think of any downward reversal.

And 61% retracement of wave [c or 3] can be used as stoploss for any existing longs.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For Medium/Long term, there is possibility of big Irregular Correction at top, so Bank Nifty is still in medium/long term positive zone and there is possibility for new high above 27652 either from present levels or from 23611-22998. This upside rally must be sharp because of Irregular Correction and it is sharp till now. But we still not confirmed if bottom is already made or pending because pattern at bottom is not completely clear.

For short term, Bank Nifty achieved its all minimum requirements for completion of wave (c or 3). But 26069-25988 is still support range on downside and same 25988 is the breakeven point for downside.

And 26299-26442 is resistance range on upside and any bigger bounce can be expected after break above 26426 only. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while planning next trade.

And 61% retracement of wave [c or 3] can be used as stoploss for any existing longs.

Trading Strategy:  

According to the condition on the charts most probable trades in these conditions would be: –

If someone bought and holding Bank Nifty 26200 call of 7 June expiry in support range today then same can be hold with trailing stoploss of 26171 expecting 26299-26442 as minimum target range and the trade can be hold for next day only if Bank Nifty breaks and closes above upside breakeven point 26442.

But Bank Nifty if fails to break above 26442 tomorrow then 26200 call can be exited and risky traders can even buy 26500 put of  07 June expiry  with stoploss above 26442 (35-40 points above 26442) in this case.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  2. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  3. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  4. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  5. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  6. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  9. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry
  10. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward
  11.  Bank Nifty can Bounce Above 25198 Again in Medium Term
  12.  Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onward
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  14. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  15. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  16. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  17. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  18. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  19. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Session

Contact me:

 Email:  ewavinod@gmail.com

Call: 9796033671

WhatsApp: 9796033671

Websitewww.ewanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: , , ,

Category: Bank Nifty

About the Author ()

Comments are closed.