Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 July 2019

| July 8, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 31523, traded in 31323-31660 with volatility and finally closed 03 points up at 31473.

Friday, 31489-31415 was immediate support and 31415 was immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to decline further towards 31105-31060 if breaks and stay below 31415 for 15 minutes.

Trading strategy was Buying Puts if Bank Nifty trades below 31415 for 15 minutes. Bank Nifty broken below 31415 but bounced back again to register high 31660 and then declined back. Further Live updates were sent by Whatsapp during live market hours. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240. There is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (2) and wave (3) may be completed from 26441-31783 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 30522-29742. So, 30522-29742 is the major support with 29742 as major downside breakeven point or trend reversal point. We can think of any downside reversal after breaks below 29742 only. Bank Nifty already entered in support range 30522-29742, registered low 30220 and bounce back.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from all time high 31783 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 31783 which I am analyzing independently. The pattern of this decline is very complex and confusing because of repeated impulsive moves.

There is straight line decline from 31783-30623, so we can’t count its inner waves. But the personality of this decline is impulsive. This decline can be wave (a) or (1) or (c) of Irregular Correction.

Further bounce from 30623-31752 also looks like an impulsive move, we can mark it as wave (A or C). But the later decline from 31752-30627 also looks like impulsive wave which I marked as wave (a or 1). Overall, there is confusion within the move from 31783-30623-31752.

We can only conclude that the decline from 31399-30220 is 3 waves [abc] move with inner wave [a] completed from 31399-30638, [b] from 30638-31036 and wave [c] completed from 31036-30220.

From low 30220, it seems wave completed at 30824 may be wave (i), wave (ii) may be completed at 30450, wave (iii) may be completed at 31490, wave (iv) may be completed at 31105 and wave (iv) may be in progress.

Wave (v) achieved minimum 38% projection after breaks above 31545 whereas 61%-100% projection is placed at 31844-32330 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze progress of wave (v) started from low 31060 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute chart covering move from low 31060 which I am expecting start of wave (v) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 31450 may be wave (a or 1), wave completed at 31105 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be completed at 31660 or still in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 31430 which is already broken once but is still immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if trades/stay below 31430 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 31060.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

There is no major change on Outlook yet. Overall, Bank Nifty is in positive zone and it can bounce for new high above 31783  as long as trading above major downside breakeven/trend reversal point 29742 [30522-29742 is major support range on downside]. We can think of any downside reversal after breaks below 29742 only.

For Very short term, 31430 is immediate downside breakeven point and Bank Nifty if trades/stay below 31430 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 31105-31060.

On upside, 31569-31609 is immediate resistance range. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Trading strategy would be to Sell Bank Nifty/ Buying Puts if Bank Nifty trades/stay below 31430 for 15 minutes expecting downside target 31105-31060. Entry Levels and Stoploss can be calculated after breakdown.

We can think of any buying if Bank Nifty breaks above 31660. So, buying decision can be taken after breakout during live market hours only.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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