Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 May 2019

| May 8, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 29749, bounced further to registered day’s high 29835 but didn’t sustain at higher level and declined back again by more than 550 point to registered day’s low 29244 and finally closed 330 points down at 29288.

Yesterday, 29754 was immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to bounce further towards 30035-30121 if breaks and stay above 29754 for 15 minute. Otherwise, decline towards 29548-29435 was expected. 29161-29040 was short term support with 29040 as short term breakeven point on downside.

Trading strategy was to buy suitable bank nifty call of 09th may expiry if Bank Nifty gets in 29100-29040 range using exact stoploss of 29889 expecting bounce of 400-600 points in coming session. Bank Nifty opened at 29754, declined till 29244 and finally closed at 29288. So, our trade was not activated. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 30648.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29040 which is short/Medium term breakeven point nd we can think of any bigger reversal after breaking below 29040 only.

Now, let’s analyze the move started after 30648 on separate lowest time frame chart to check next immediate move.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 30648.

The whole decline looks like a Complex Correction with first (ABC) cycle completed from 30648-29435, Wave (X) may be completed from 29435-30121 and 2nd (ABC) cycle may be in progress.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from high 30121 on separate lowest time frame chart to check next immediate move.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 29835 which I am expecting start of 2nd (ABC) cycle on the previous chart.

Within 2nd (ABC) cycle, it seems wave (A) may be completed at 29537, wave (B) may be completed at 29835 and wave (C) may be in progress.

Again within wave (C), it seems wave completed at 29715 may be wave [1], wave completed at 29746 may be wave [2] as Irregular Correction and wave [3] may be completed or still in progress. Wave [3] is sharp, so we can’t identify the inner counts of wave [3] confidently.

38% retracement of progress of whole wave (C) is placed at 29383-29469 which is immediate resistance range with 29469 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29469 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 29712-29835, otherwise one more decline of minimum 240-360 points is possible.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Overall, Bank Nifty still in positive zone for short/medium term as long as trading above short term breakeven point 29040. Any bigger downward reversal we can expect after breaking below 29040 only.

For Intraday/very short term, 29383-29469 is immediate resistance range with same 29469 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29469 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 29712-29835. Otherwise, one more decline of minimum 240-360 points is possible if Bank Nifty fails to break above 29469.

On downside, 29040 is short term breakeven point on downside. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

29469 is immediate upside breakeven point, so low risk selling can be done near 29469 if upside corrective pattern completes near this point. Buying can be done after break above 29469 only but entry levels and stoploss for buying can be calculated after breakout only.

29040 is short/medium breakeven point where a positional trade can be planned for 1000-1200 points move.

We need to check the fresh pattern of Bank Nifty near Support/breakeven point to decide a confident trade. So, I just mentioned important levels and low risk trading conditions. I will send alert during market hours through whatsapp if find any confident trading opportunity.

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DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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