Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 11 October 2018 Onward

| October 11, 2018

Bank Nifty opened higher at 24596, registered low 24559 and bounced back again by more than 800 points to register day’s high 25371 and finally closed 794 points up at 25321.

Yesterday, there was a possibility of Irregular Correction at top and Bank Nifty was expected to give one more bounce above 24759. Further, Bank Nifty was also expected to bounce towards 25050-25525 in coming days if manage to trade above 24709 continuously for 15 minutes.

Trading strategy was to buy any suitable Call of 11th Oct expiry in 24527-24464 range using stoploss of 27 expecting minimum bounce towards 24759-24969 which further can extend towards 25080-25525 in coming days. Bank Nifty opened at 24596, registered low 24559 [not entered in suggested buy 24527-24464 range] and bounced back to register day’s high 25371. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave inner [4] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 October 2018 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting start of wave [4] of wave (iii) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 28388-26555 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 26555-27205 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 24240.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 25372 which is the short term breakeven point on upside and we can think of any big upside reversal after breaking above 25378 only. Bank Nifty achieved 25371 till now.

Now, we need to analyze last bounce started from 24240 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern/immediate counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed at 24240-24745 may be wave [a or 1], wave completed from 24745-24464 may be wave [b or 2] and wave [c or 3] may be completed at 25371 or still in progress.

Within wave [c or 3], it seems wave [1],[2],[3],[4] may be completed till 25028 and wave [5] may be completed at 25371 or still in progress.

Wave [5] achieved its minimum 38% projection after breaking above 25292 whereas next 61%-100% projection is placed at 25456-25721 which may or may not be achieved.

38% retracement of the progress of wave [c or 3] is placed at 25025 which is the immediate breakeven point/support on downside and same can be used as stoploss for any existing longs.

Conclusion and Outlook:

Bank Nifty is still in negative zone and 25372 is the breakeven point on upside. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break above 25372 only. Bank Nifty if breaks and closed above 25372 can enter in short term positive trend.

For Intraday/very short term, 25025 is the immediate breakeven point and support on downside. Bank Nifty if breaks/trades below 25025 more than 15 minutes can result in further fall towards 24464-24240. Same 25025 can be used as stoploss for any longs.

Trading Strategy:  

Bank Nifty is still very Volatile, Implied volatility is very high and options are expensive. Options premium may not rise even on 200-300, so trading in options is not rewarding only if we see one sided move of 400-500 points. We must keep this mind while deciding next trade.

Bank Nifty already bounced by 800 points so we need to wait for some correction to decide next trade. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 25025 for 15 minutes then any suitable Bank Nifty put of 18 Oct expiry which is trading around 60 can be bought using stoploss of 27 expecting further decline towards 24464-24240.

Otherwise, Bank Nifty if completes corrective pattern above 25025 can give one more bounce of 350-600 points but trade can be decided after confirming pattern only.

Otherwise, traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

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Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

Contact me:

Emailewavinod@gmail.com

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Website: www.ewanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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