Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 11 September 2018 Onward

| September 10, 2018

Bank Nifty opened lower at 27395, declined sharply just after opening by more than 250 points to register day’s low 27142 and finally closed 279 points down at 27201.

Yesterday, 27534 was immediate resistance on upside and Bank Nifty was expected to bounce towards 27900-28388 in coming days if break and stay above 27534 continuously 15 minutes. But any further delay or consolidation below 27534 could result in further fall towards 27136 and below.

Trading strategy was to buy Bank Nifty 27700 Call of 12 Sep expiry if Bank Nifty breaks and stay above 27534 continuously 15 minutes with stoploss of 27399 expecting bounce towards 27900-28388 in coming days and 28500 call of 27 Sep Expiry was suggested to hold without stoploss. Bank Nifty opened at 27395 and traded below 27534 for whole day, so our fresh trade was not activated. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] (explained in my all time frame report. There is no change in wave counts on this chart. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

Within wave [v], it seems wave completed at 24651 may be wave (1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (2), wave completed at 27164 may be wave (3), wave completed at 26060 may be wave (4) and wave (5) may be completed at 28388 or still in progress.

Wave (5) achieved 61% projection after breaking above 28259 and next 100% projection is placed at 29619 which may or may not be achieve. Bank Nifty achieved 28388 till now.

Now, we need to analyze wave (5) of [v] started from 26060 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26060. This bounce I marked as start of wave (5) as marked on Daily chart.

Wave completed from 26060-27164 may be wave (A), wave completed from 27164-26671 may be (B) and wave completed from 26671-28378 may be wave (C). But the further decline after 28378 looks like an Irregular Correction.

So, there is possibility that wave (5) progressing as Ending Diagonal Triangle (ED) with inner wave (i) of ED completed from 26060-28378, and wave (ii) of ED may be in progress as Irregular Correction from 28378.

61% retracement of wave (ii) of ED is placed at 26949 because wave (ii) of ED often retraces 61% or more.

So, we need to analyze decline started from 28378 on separate lowest time frame chart to check if pattern of decline from 28378 is following the rules of Irregular Correction.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is the 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 28378 which I am expecting wave (ii) of ED [2nd (ABC)] of wave (5).

From high 28378, the first decline from 28378-27739 looks like an (abc) wave and further bounce from 27739-28388 also a (abc) move, so the combination is indicating a possibility of Irregular Correction with wave (A) from 28378-27739, Irregular (B) completed from 27739-28388 and wave (C) may be in progress.

Within wave (C), it seems wave completed from 28388-27942 may be wave (1), wave completed from 27942-28180 may be wave (2), wave (3) may be completed at 27136, wave (4) may be completed from 27136-27552 and wave (5) of (C) may be in progress.

38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 27073-26778, so wave (C) can complete somewhere around 27073-26778 range.

38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 27534 which is breakeven point and resistance on upside and Bank Nifty if break and stay above 27534 for more than 15 minutes can result of further bounce towards 27900-28388.

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave (5) started from 27552 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Min time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 27752.

I am not able to identify any confident pattern on this chart. The combination of inner waves is not following rules of any pattern. So, can’t conclude anything from this chart.

Conclusion and Outlook:

There is no major change in outlook: –

For Short Term, the formation of Irregular Correction type of pattern at top is indicating one more bounce for new high above 28388 in coming day but there is no idea of exact bottom. 27073-26778 is the normal support range on downside whereas 26949 is 61% retracement of wave (ii) of ED. So, there is possibility of a small or big reversal from 26949-26778 range.

On upside, 27534 is the immediate breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty if break and stay above 27534 for more than 15 minutes can result of further bounce towards 27900-28388 in coming days.
We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

We don’t have any Intraday/Short term trading strategy at this point of time because small/inner pattern is not clear. A low risk trade can be done either in 26949-26778 range or after breaking above 27534: –

1. So, Bank Nifty if trades above 27534 continuously for 15 minutes then 27800 call of 19th Sep Expiry can be bought near 27534 using stoploss of 27399 expecting minimum bounce towards 27900-28388 in coming days.

2. Bank Nifty if get in 26949-26778 range then 27500 call of 19th Sep Expiry can be bought without stoploss. Means stoploss for this call is 0, so adjust the quantity in such a way that you will be comfortable even if call become zero. Otherwise, stoploss will be updated later.

Bank Nifty 28500 Call of 27th Sep Expiry bought in 27819-27725 range is in loss of 70%-80% but it can still be hold till expiry without any stoploss because the possibility of bounce for new high is still there but those who are not comfortable can exit the same.

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in these conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the levels explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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