Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 12 November 2018 Onward

| November 11, 2018

Bank Nifty opened flat at 25742, traded in 25598-25822 range rest of the day and finally closed 33 points up at 25771.

Friday, 25542-25348 was the immediate support and Bank Nifty was expected to bounce further above 25857, may be towards 26000-26200 in coming days. Otherwise, 25348 was the immediate breakeven point on downside and Bank Nifty if breaks below 25348 then further decline expected towards 24528-24353.

Trading strategy was to buy any suitable Call of 15th Nov expiry [which is trading around 60] if Bank Nifty get in 25542-25348 range using stoploss of 25329 expecting bounce above 25857-26000 in coming days or Buy Put if Bank Nifty stay below 25348 for 15 minutes. But Bank Nifty opened at 25742, traded in 25598-25822 range for whole day. So, our trade was not activated. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave inner [4] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 October 2018 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting start of wave [4] of wave (iii) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 28388-26555 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 26555-27205 may be wave (B or 2), wave completed from 27205-24240 may be wave (C or 3) but there are repeated (abc) waves after 24240.

Wave (B or 2) is negligible, so we need to calculate 38% retracement of whole decline from 28388-24240 to get upside breakeven point. Upside breakeven point is 25824 which is broken thrice but Bank Nifty didn’t close above it yet, means Bank Nifty is facing very strong resistance at breakeven point.

The bounce from 24240-25915 looks like (abc) move, the decline from 25915-24353 is (abc) move and further bounce after 24353 is a 3 waves move till now. These repeated (abc) waves after 24240 are making it difficult to identify exact waves. The pattern can turn into Irregular correction also and we need to wait for clear signs.

So, let’s analyzed the last bounce started from 24353 to calculate immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24353 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (a or 1) may be completed from 24353-25121, (b or 2) may be completed from 25121-24528 and (c or 3) may be completed at 25856.

23%-38% retracement of the progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 25542-25348 which is the immediate support with 25348 as immediate breakeven point on downside.  Bank Nifty if breaks below 25348 then further decline towards 24528-24240 can be expected.

From high 25856, the pattern looks like a combination of corrective type (abc) waves. So, it may be complex correction, Irregular Correction or Ending Diagonal (ED) in progress from 25537.

Overall, there is a possibility of one more bounce above 25857 (may be towards 26000-26200) either from present level or from immediate support range 25542-25348 range. 25348 is the immediate breakeven point on downside and Bank Nifty if breaks below 25348 then further decline towards 24528-24240 can be expected.

Conclusion and Outlook:

There is no change in outlook, there is a possibility of one more bounce above 25857 (may be towards 26000-26200) either from present level or from immediate support range 25542-25348. Upside breakeven point 25824 is broken repeatedly, so staying above this breakeven point will also support the bounce.

And 25348 is the immediate breakeven point on downside and Bank Nifty if breaks below 25348 then further decline towards 24528-24240 can be expected.

Personalities wise, Bank Nifty is facing very stiff resistance around upside breakeven point 25824 and high is 25857. So, Bank Nifty if stay above 25857 for 15 minutes can initiate sharp bounce towards 26044-26357.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

There are 02 low risk trading conditions on charts: –

  1. Bank Nifty if get in 25542-25348 range than any suitable Call of 15th Nov Expiry can be bought using stoploss of 25329 expecting bounce towards 25857-26000 in coming days. Buy any Out of Money Call which is trading around 60.
  2. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 25857 for 15 minutes then any suitable Call of 15th Nov Expiry can be bought in 25857-25750 range using stoploss of 25699 expecting bounce towards 26000-26357 in coming days. Buy any Out of Money Call which is trading around 60.

These are low risk trading strategy I can suggest in these conditions. Otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behavior based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

Contact me:

Emailewavinod@gmail.com

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Website: www.ewanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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