Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 May 2019

| May 13, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 29026, bounced to register day’s high 29049 but didn’t sustain at higher levels and declined back again by more than 400 points to registered day’s low 28621 and finally closed 380 points down at 28659.

Yesterday, Bank Nifty was in negative zone with 29202-29294 as immediate resistance range and was expected to decline towards 28691-28375 soon and towards 26617-24240 in coming days/ weeks.

Trading strategy was “Selling on Rise” in Resistance range expecting minimum downside target 28691-28375 which further can extend towards 26617-24240 in coming weeks but Bank Nifty didn’t touch resistance. 28500 Put of 16 May was suggested to buy during live market through WhatsApp at 90 and same was booked at 150 when Bank Nifty achieved minimum target 28691. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 30670.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29054 which is already broken, so Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone and warning cautions for further decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks.

Now, we need to analyze the move started after 30670 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 30670.

It seems wave completed from 30670-29435 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 29435-30121 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 30121.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29294. So, 29294 is short/medium term breakeven point on upside. We can think of any major upside reversal after break above 29294 only.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 29537, wave [2] may be completed at 29835, wave [3] may be completed at 28784, wave [4] may be completed at 29202 and wave [5] may be in progress.

Wave [5] achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking below 28691 whereas next 61%-100% is placed at 28375-27865 which may or may not be achieve.

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave [5] on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and immediate important levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 29202 which I am expecting start inner wave [5] of (C or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave (i) may be completed at 28884, wave (ii) may be completed at 29049 and wave (iii) may be in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 28777, so 28777 is fresh immediate resistance/upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 28777 for more than 15 minutes can bounce further towards 29049-29202. Otherwise, further decline towards 28375 is possible.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty broke short/medium term downside breakeven point after breaking below 29054 and entered in medium term negative zone. So, Bank Nifty is warning cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks. Now, 29294 is short/Medium term upside breakeven point and we can think of any upside reversal after breaking above 29294 only.

For Intraday/very short term, 28777 is immediate upside breakeven point and Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 28777 for more than 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 29049-29202. Otherwise, further decline towards 28375-27865 can be expected soon.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Major support 29054 is broken and Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone, so cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 are there in coming days/weeks. So, main trading preference would by selling on every 23%-38% rise. 28777 is immediate resistance and 29294 is major resistnace.

Selling can be done near 28777 or if we see the formation of any other bearish internal pattern. I will send alert during market hours through whatsapp if find any change in wave pattern or any change in important levels or any confident trading opportunity based on internal wave patterns.

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DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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