Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 15 November 2018 Onward

| November 15, 2018

Bank Nifty opened gap up at 25952, declined sharply just after opening to registered low 25814 and bounced back to registered day’s high 26045 but declined back again to register day’s fresh low 25806 and finally closed 161 points up at 25930. Overall it was up down swing move.

Yesterday, bounce towards 25910-26236 was expected in coming days from immediate support range 25725-25681. Same 25681 was immediate breakeven point on downside and any further fall was expected after breaking below 25681 only.

Trading strategy was to buy any suitable Call of 15th Nov expiry [which is trading around 60] if Bank Nifty gets in 25725-25681 range using stoploss of 25589 expecting bounce towards 25910-26236 in coming days.  Bank Nifty achieved minimum target 25910 at opening only, So our trade was negated. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave inner [4] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 October 2018 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting start of wave [4] of wave (iii) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 28388-26555 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 26555-27205 may be wave (B or 2), wave completed from 27205-24240 may be wave (C or 3) but there are repeated (abc) waves after 24240.

The bounce from 24240-25915 looks like (abc) move and the decline from 25915-24353 is also looks like (abc) which is making it difficult to identify exact waves. The pattern can turn into complex correction or any other pattern which I am not able to identify at present.

So, let’s analyzed the last bounce started from 24353 to calculate immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24353 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave (1) may be completed from 24353-25121, (2) may be completed from 25121-24528, wave (3) may be completed at 25907, wave (4) may be completed from 25907-25384 and wave (5) may be completed at 26045 or still in progress.

Wave (5) achieved minimum 38% projection placed at 25910 and next 61% projection is placed at 26236 which may or may not be achieved.

If an impulse is already completed from 24353-26045 then 38%-61% retracement of whole wave [24353-26045] is placed at 25398-24999 which is the expected targets range on downside.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 25384 on separate lowest time frame chart to check if wave (5) is completed or still in progress.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 25384 which I am expecting start of wave (5) on previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 25574 may be wave [1], wave completed at 25497 may be wave [2], wave completed at 26045 may be wave [3] and wave [4] or [5] may be in progress.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (5) is placed at 25792 which is immediate breakeven point on downside. Bank Nifty if breaks and trade below 25792 by more than 15 minutes then further fall towards 25398-24999 can be possible in coming days.

If wave [4] is completed at 25806 then minimum 38%-61% projection is placed at 26058-26214. So, Bank Nifty can achieve 26058-26214 before decline.

Conclusion and Outlook:

On the charts, it seems that an impulse is already completed from 24353-26045 or near to completion. Now, 25792 [38% retracement of the progress of wave (5)] is the immediate breakeven point on downside.

Bank Nifty if breaks and trade below 25792 by more than 15 minutes then further fall towards 25398-24999 can be possible in coming days. Otherwise, Bank Nifty can bounce towards 26058-26214 before any further decline.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

According to fresh conditions on charts: –

The bounce started from 24353 seems impulsive which achieved all its minimum requirements so there is possibility of some correction soon. So, we will avoid longs for time beings and will wait for correction.

On downside, Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 25792 for 15 minutes then any bounce towards 25792-25900 can be used to buy suitable Put of 22 Nov Expiry [which is trading around 60] using stoploss of 26046 expecting decline towards 25398-24999 in coming days.

This is low risk trading strategy I can suggest in these conditions. Otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behavior based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 12 November 2018 Onward
  2. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 29 October 2018 Onward
  3. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 11 October 2018 Onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts dated 08 October 2018
  5. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 01 October 2018 Onward
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 24 September 2018 Onward
  7. Bank Nifty can touches 28000-28388 range before 27th September 2018 Expiry
  8. Further Elliott Wave Updates of Bank Nifty for 12 Sep 2018 Onward
  9. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 11 September 2018 Onward
  10. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 03 September 2018 Onward
  11. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 August 2018 Onward
  12. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 13 August 2018 Onward
  13. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 06 August 2018 onward
  14. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  15. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  16. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  17. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  18. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  19. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  20. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  21. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  22. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  23. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  24. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  25. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  26. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  27. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  28. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

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Category: Bank Nifty

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