Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 May 2019

| May 15, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 28925, registered day’s high 28983 and declined back again by more than 400 points to registered day’s low 28555 and finally closed 212 points down at 28616.

Yesterday, one more decline below 28582 was expected as long as Bank Nifty trading below 29058. Otherwise, bounce towards 29202 was expected if Bank Nifty breaks above 29058.

No particular trade was suggested in the report. Even I didn’t suggest any trade during live market hours. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 30670.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29054 which is already broken, so Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone and warning cautions for further decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks.

Now, we need to analyze the move started after 30670 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 30670.

It seems wave completed from 30670-29435 may be wave [A or 1], wave completed from 29435-30121 may be wave [B or 2] and wave [C or 3] may be in progress from 30121.

38% retracement of progress of wave [C or 3] is placed at 29294. So, 29294 is short/medium term breakeven point on upside. We can think of any major upside reversal after break above 29294 only.

Within wave [C or 3], it seems wave [1] may be completed at 29537, wave [2] may be completed at 29835, wave [3] may be completed at 28784, wave [4] may be completed at 29058 as irregular and wave [5] may be in progress.

38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 28547-28231 which is the minimum projection for completion of wave [5] if wave completed at 29058 is really wave [4]. 100% projection is placed at 27721.

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave [5] on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and immediate important levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 29058 which I am expecting start inner wave [5] of [C or 3] on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 29058-28729 may be wave [a or 1], wave completed from 28729-28983 may be [b or 2] and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

Within wave [c or 3], it seems wave (i) may be completed at 28900, wave (ii) may be completed at 28932 as Irregular and wave (iii) may be completed at 28555 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 28643-28699 which is the immediate resistance range with 28699 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 28699 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 28932-29058. Otherwise, further decline towards 28547-28231 can be expected in coming sessions.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Overall, Bank Nifty broke short/medium term downside breakeven point after breaking below 29054 and entered in medium term negative zone. So, Bank Nifty is warning cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks. Now, 29294 is short/Medium term upside breakeven point and we can think of any upside reversal after breaking above 29294 only.

For Intraday/very short term, 28643-28699 is the immediate resistance range with 28699 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 28699 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 28932-29058. Otherwise, further decline towards 28547-28231 can be expected in coming sessions.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Major support 29054 is broken and Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone, so cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 are there in coming days/weeks. So, main trading preference would by selling on every 23%-38% rise.  29294 is major resistance.

Intraday buying or selling trade can be planned around 28643-28699 range during live market hours. We will try to look for trading opportunity during live market hour and will send updates by WhatsApp Broadcast.

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DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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