Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 18 February 2019 Onward

| February 17, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 27017, registered high 27029 and declined back sharply just after opening by more than 350 points to register day’s low 26635 and finally closed 176 points down at 26794.

Friday, minimum decline towards 26818-26726 was expected and 27030 was immediate upside breakeven point.

Trading strategy was to buy Bank Nifty 26800 Put of 21 Feb expiry if Bank Nifty gets in 27000-27030 range using exact stoploss 27109 expecting minimum decline towards 26818-26726. Bank Nifty opened at 27017 and declined to register low 26635 and our expected target range of 26818-26726 was achieved. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [4] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 October 2018 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [4] of wave (iii) Wave [4] may be completed from 28388-24240 as Simple Zigzag Correction.

From low, its seems wave completed at 25915 may be wave (i), wave completed at 24353 may be wave (ii), wave (iii) may be completed at 27754, wave (iv) may be completed at 26441 and wave (v) may be in progress from 26441.

38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 27783-28612 which is the minimum expected target range for completion of wave (v).

From low 26441, it seems an impulse completed from 26441-27589 may be wave (A or 1) and wave (B or 2) may be in progress from 27589. Wave (b or 2) achieved its normal 61% retracement after breaking below 26879.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from high 27589 on separate lowest time frame chart to check inner/immediate counts and immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 27589 which I am expecting start of wave (B or 2) on the previous chart.

Wave completed from 27589-27221 seems corrective type (abc) and next wave from 27221-27482 again seems corrective type [abc].

From high 27482, it seems wave completed from 27482-27152 may be wave (a or 1), wave completed from 27152-27306 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be completed at 26635.

38% retracement of wave (c or 3) is placed at 26891 which is the immediate resistance/breakeven point on upside.

From low 26635, it seems wave completed at 26851 may be wave [a or 1], wave completed at 26666 may be wave [b or 2] and wave [c or 3] may be in progress from 26666.

100%-123% projection for wave [c or 3] is placed at 26882-26932 which is the normal range for completion of wave [c or 3].

Overall, Bank Nifty still negative as long as trading below immediate breakeven point 26932 [26882-26932 is immediate resistance range]. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 26932 by more than 15 min can result in further bounce towards 27306 and above.

Conclusion and Outlook:

There is no major change in outlook, Bank Nifty still negative as long as trading below immediate breakeven point 26932 [26882-26932 is immediate resistance range].

Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 26932 by more than 15 min can result in further bounce towards 27306 and above. Same 26932 can be used as stoploss for any shorts.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Bank Nifty if gets in 26900-26923 range then buy Bank Nifty 26800 Put of 21 Feb expiry using exact stolposs of 26989 expecting decline below 26635 in coming days.

And remember, weekly options are very volatile and premium fluctuates drastically. So, always try to book part/full whenever seeing reasonable profit because any consolidation for couple of days can eat options premium drastically.

Disclaimer: This analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

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Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty Can Decline Towards 26923 Very Soon
  2. Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 31 December 2018
  3. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 03 December 2018     
  4. Bank Nifty can Decline by 450-700 Points Before 26431
  5. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 15 November 2018 Onward

 

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