Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 18 July 2017 Onward

| July 17, 2017 | 0 Comments

Bank Nifty again opened higher at 24011 and decline sharply just after opening to register day’s low 23913 but bounced back again by more than 150 points from low to register new all time high 24066 and finally closed 77 points up at 24015.

Yesterday, further bounce towards 23996-24080 was expected and I suggested book Part/full profit in Bank Nifty 20 July 23700 call and rest position can be hold with fresh stoploss of 23874 expecting targets 23996-24080 range which can extend further towards 24146.

Bank Nifty achieved our expected targets 23996-24080 and 20 July 23700 call registered high 342. The trade gave more than 100% profit. Now, we need to analyze latest charts for next move.

This report is covering Bank Nifty move after 22 June 2017 high 23897 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Min chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Min chart

This is 30 min time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 23897. There is no change in wave counts. Same,

It seems some type of corrective pattern completed at 22995 and new upside impulse has been started. And may be inner wave (1) of Impulse is completed from 22995-23330, wave (2) may be completed at 23163 as an irregular correction and wave (3) may be in progress from 23163.

And within wave (3), it seems wave completed from 23163-23286 may be wave (i), wave completed from 23286-23196 may be wave (ii), wave completed from 23196-23720 may be wave (iii), wave completed from 23720-23523 may be wave (iv) as an irregular correction and wave (v) may be in progress from 23523.

Wave (v) already achieved its 61% projection placed at 23867 where as next 100% placed at 24080 which may or may not be achieved.

Wave (v) of (3) achieved its normal projection so now we need to see if its pattern is completed or not. Let’s have a separate look on wave counts of Bank Nifty on separate 15 min time bar chart from low 23523.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Min chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Min chart

This is 15 min time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 23523 which is a start of (v) of (3) in previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 23523-23606 may be wave 1, wave completed from 23606-23539 may be wave 2 and wave completed from 23527-23914 may be wave 3 and wave completed from 23914-23755 may be wave 4 and wave 5 may be running from 23755.

Wave 5 already achieved its minimum 61% projections and next 100% projection is placed at 24146 may or may not be achieved.

And within wave 5, it seems wave (1) may be completed at 23830, wave (2) may be completed at 23768 and wave (3) may be completed at 24021 and wave (4) or (5) may be in progress.

Normal 38% retracement for wave (4) is placed at 23919 which can be referred as breakeven point or stoploss for longs.

Conclusion and Outlook :

Bank Nifty again registered new all time high 24066 after breaking earlier high 23963 and achieved our expected targets range.  And trade done in 23700 20 July Call also gave about 100% profit (bounced from 176-34).

But pattern of waves at top still seems incomplete and Bank Nifty still has possibility to bounce further towards 24080-24146 and can extend further higher because completion of wave (3) followed by (5) is still pending within the impulse started from 22995.

23916 is fresh breakeven point and same can be referred as stoploss for longs.

Trading Strategy:

According to conditions on chart,

  1. Bank Nifty 20 July 23800 call can be bought again if Bank Nifty decline towards 23919-23890 range with stoploss of 23877 (some points below 23919) expecting minimum target above 24066.
  2. Wait for break below breakeven point and any reversal pattern to form for buying Puts.

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