Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward

| June 23, 2017 | 0 Comments

Bank Nifty opened higher at 23716 and bounced sharply by more than 200 points to register new all time high 23897 but didn’t sustain at those levels and declined back again register day’s low 23694. Bank Nifty finally closed 27 points up at 23736.

Yesterday, bounce towards 23806-23916 was expected and I suggested buying 23900 30 June put on bounce towards 23806-23900 range to hold till further updates. Bank Nifty opened higher at 23716 and further bounce to register new all time high 23897 and our Bank Nifty 23900 30 June put was activated. Now, we need to analyze latest chart to find next move.

This report is covering Bank Nifty move after 24 May 2017 low 22469 and earlier wave counts are explained in my previous analysis report Bank Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis and Outlook for 29 May 2017 Onwards

Elliott wave analysis counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Min Chart

Elliott wave analysis counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Min Chart

This is 30 minutes time bar chart of Bank Nifty showing bounce from 22469 which is the start of very last upside wave.

There is no major change in wave counts on this chart, it seems wave (1) is completed from 22469-22731, wave (2) is completed from 22731-22674, wave (3) is completed from 22674-23708, wave (4) may be completed from 23708-23311 and wave (5) may completed at 23897.  Wave (5) achieved its minimum 38% projection after breaking 23784 where as 61% was placed at 24076.

If wave (5) is really completed at 23897 then normal 23%-38% retracement for the whole wave (start from 22469-23897) is placed at 23559-23351 which is the expected downward target range if correction is already started from 23897.

Now, we need to analyze separate (5) min chart of Bank Nifty covering decline from new all time high 23897.

Elliott wave analysis counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Min Chart

Elliott wave analysis counts of Bank Nifty on 5 Min Chart

This is 5 min time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from new all time high 23897.

The pattern of the decline from high 23897 looks like a progress of downward impulse. It seems wave (i) may be completed from 23897-23865, wave (ii) may be completed from 23865-23888 and wave (iii) may be completed at 23716 or still in Progress.

Normal 23%-38% retracement for progressive wave (iii) is placed at 23739-23768. So, 23768 can be taken as breakeven point or stoploss for shorts.

Conclusion and Outlook

Bank Nifty bounced above 23806 till 23806-23912 as I expected but again after triggering our stoploss by just 8 points yesterday. Bank Nifty also declined back by 200 points from high after registering 23806-23912 as expected for today.

Nifty 23559-23351 is the probable expected range on downside if I am right at identifying the pattern and 23768 can be taken as breakeven point or stoploss for shorts.

Trading Strategy:

  1. Bank Nifty 30 June 23900 put if bought today in 23806-23900 range can be hold with fresh stoploss of 23769 expecting minimum target 23559 which further extend toward 23351.
  2. If Bank Nifty breaks above 23769 and bounce further till 23850-23897 then Buy 23900 30 Jun Put again in 23850-23897 range with stoploss of 23913 expecting downwards targets 23559-23351.

Always book part profit or protect profit by trailing stoploss whenever getting profit more than stoploss because Bank Nifty is very volatile scripts and it often changes patterns or complete patterns in quick time.

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