Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 24 September 2018 Onward

| September 23, 2018

Bank Nifty opened higher at 26331, bounced to register day’s high 26490 but didn’t sustain at higher and declined back sharply by more than 1400 points to register day’s low 25053 followed by sharp bounce till 26034 and finally closed 680 points down at 25596. Overall, it’s very volatile move with up-down swing.

Overall, Bank Nifty was expected to bounce sharply towards 28000-28300 in coming days whereas 26489 was the immediate resistance/breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty was expected to bounce towards 26901-27000 if breaks/stay above 26489. Otherwise, decline below 26235 was expected if fails to breaks/stay above 26489.

Trading strategy was to hold Bank Nifty 27500 call of 27th Sep expiry [bought around 50 or below] till 27th Sep expiry without any stoploss. Bank Nifty 27500 call of 27th Sep expiry was closed at 5.40. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] (explained in my all time frame report.

Wave [3] may be completed with inner wave [i],[ii],[iii], completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be completed at 28388.

23%-38% retracement of the wave [3] is placed at 25843-24269 and Bank Nifty already acheieved 23% retracement after breaking below 25843. So, 25053-24269 is the medium term support range on downside with 24269 as Brekeven point for short/medium term. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 24269 only.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from all time high 28388 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves/counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388.

Wave completed from 28388-28185 may be wave (1), wave completed from 28185-28340 may be (2), wave completed from 28340-26555 may be wave (3), wave completed from 26555-27205 may be wave (4) and wave (5) may be completed at 25053 or still in progress.

Wave (5) achieved its 100% projection placed at 25372 and becomes highly extended wave, whereas 123% projection for wave (5) is placed at 24939.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (5) is placed at 25875 which is the immediate resistance on upside and Bank Nifty if stays above 25875 then further bounce towards 26500-27200 can be expected.

Now, we need to analyze bounce started from low 25053 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern/immediate counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 25053.

It seems wave competed from 25053-26034 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 26034-25207 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave (i) or (ii) may be in progress from 25207.

61%-78% retracement of the progress of wave (i) is placed at 25388-25308 which is the immediate support on downside.

Now, Bank Nifty needs to bounce sharply to support these counts because we are expecting wave (C or 3) in progress and wave (C or 3) is known to be faster and larger.

Conclusion and Outlook:

Bank Nifty completed a big downward Impulse of more than 3000 points from 28388-25207 and there is possibility of small or big reversal. Reversal can be towards 26500-27200 or towards new life time high. 25875 is immediate breakeven point and Bank Nifty if trades above 25875 for 15 minutes can bounce further towards 26500-27200.

Personality wise, Bank Nifty needs to bounce sharply towards 26500-27200 to support the pattern because wave (5) of downward impulse started from 27202 is highly extended and we can expecting wave (C or 3) in progress. So, any consolidation below 25875 can also result in further fall for new low.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Hedge Trade: – 25875 is breakeven point from where a sharp bounce towards 26500-27200 or decline towards 25200 is expected. So, 25875 is suitable point to decide hedge trade.

So, Suitable Call and Put of 04th Oct Expiry can be bought in equally quantity if get Bank Nifty near 25875 expecting quick move of 600-1000 points either side in coming sessions. Buy call and Put of 04th Oct expiry which is trading around 60-70 (Both call and Put must be trading around 60-70). Options of 27th Sep expiry can also be used.

Those who want to trade single side can buy 26500 Call of 04th Oct expiry in 60-40 range using stoploss of 27 expecting 120-180 as minimum upside targets.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

Contact me:

Emailewavinod@gmail.com

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Website: www.ewanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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