Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 28 May 2019

| May 27, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 31234, declined to register low 31142 and bounced back again by more than 500 points to registered day’s high 31700 and finally closed 435 points up at 31647.

Yesterday, 31003 was the immediate downside breakeven point and Bank Nifty was expected to bounce further above 31275 as long as trading above 31003. Decline towards 30564-30292 was possible if breaks and stay below 31003.

Bank Nifty bounced further by 500 points but without breaking below breakeven point 31003. Intraday updates were sent through WhatsApp Broadcast during live market hours.  Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 31705.

23%-38% retracement of wave (C or 3) is placed at 30462-29694 which is the major support and 29694 is the major downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty already entered in support range. We can think of any bigger downside reversal after breaking below 29694 only.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from all time high 31705 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from new all time high 31705.

It seems wave [a or 1] may be completed at 30760 and wave [b or 2] may be in progress as big Irregular Correction.

Within wave [b or 2], it seems wave (a) may be completed at 31074, irregular wave (b) may be completed at 30292 and wave (c) may be in progress.

Again with wave (c), it seems wave (i) may be completed at 30839, wave (ii) may be completed at 30564 and wave (iii) may be completed at 31700 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c) is placed at 31431-31266 which is immediate support with 31266 as immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 31266 for more than 15 minute can result in further decline towards 30564-30292.

The decline from 31074-30292 looks like a 3 wave (abc) moves which is indicating the possibility of Irregular Correction but wave (c) of Irregular Correction bounced near earlier high which is not normal. So, we need to ignore Irregular Correction and need concentrate on bounce after 30292 to calculate further outlook

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty already bounced by 1400 points from major support 30462-29694 and is already near All Time High 31705.  So, we need to concentrate on internal wave started after 30292 to calculate further outlook.

Based on bounce after 30292, Bank Nifty is still in positive zone with 31431-31266 as immediate support and Bank Nifty can give one more bounce of 500-800 points from support range 31431-31266.

But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 31266 for more than 15 minute can result in further decline towards 30564-30292.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Bank Nifty bounced from major support and already near All time high. Now, 31266 is trailing stoploss for positional longs (if any).

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 31431-31266 is low risk buying range for target of 500-800 points. Selling can be planned after break below 31266 and entry levels/stoploss can be calculated after breakdown only.

Option premium is back to normal now, so trades can be done by buying suitable options according to levels and trend.

Any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be notified during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: , , , ,

Category: Bank Nifty

About the Author ()

Comments are closed.