Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 29 July 2019

| July 29, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 29062, declined to register day’s low 28994 and bounced back again by more than 350 points to registered day’s high 29379 and finally closed 282 points up at 29325.

Friday, Bank Nifty Bank Nifty was in negative zone with 29342-29634 as resistance and 29634 was short term upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to give one more decline of minimum 764-1236 points in coming sessions without breaking higher above 29634.

Bank Nifty opened at 29062 and bounced further till 29379, entered in resistance range 29342-29634. Later, I updated that “Bank Nifty can be sold in 29500-29634 range if get there using stoploss above 29634 or we need to wait for breaks below immediate downside breakeven point 29187. Further updates were sent during market hour (by whatsapp). Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (2) and wave (3) may be completed at 31783 and wave (4) may be in progress.

38% retracement of wave (3) is already broken after break below 29742. Generally Bank Nifty entered in Medium Term Negative Zone but we need to concentrate on the pattern of decline after 31783 to calculate further move.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from all time high 31783 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 31783 which I expecting start of wave (4) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 30623 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 31699 may be wave (B or 2) as Irregular Correction and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (C or 3), It seems wave [1] may be completed at 30346, wave [2] may be completed at 30870, wave [3] may be in progress.

Again within wave [3], it seems wave (i) may be completed at 30334, wave (ii) may be completed at 30799, and wave (iiii) may be completed at 28871 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (iii) is placed at 29342-29634 which is upside resistance with 29634 as upside breakeven point.

Overall, Bank Nifty is week as long as trading below upside breakeven point 29634 with resistance at 29342-29634. We can think of any upside reversal after breaks and stay above 29634 for 15 minute only.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 28871 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 28871 which I am expecting wave (iv) on the previous chart. The overall pattern of the bounce seems corrective.

Wave completed from 28871-29240 seems corrective (abc) and next wave from 29240-28940 also seems corrective (abc).

From low 28940, wave completed at 29167 may be wave (a or 1), wave completed at 28971 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave 1,2,3,4 may be completed till 29229 and wave ‘5’ may be completed at 29379 or still in progress.

Wave ‘5’ achieved minimum 38% projection placed at 29371 whereas 61%-100% projection is placed at 29459-29602 which may or may not achieved.

Overall, the pattern of bounce after 28871 seems corrective (may be Correction), so we can expect one more decline for low below 28871 after completion of this upside Complex Correction.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty broke major trend reversal/downside breakeven point 29742 and entered in medium term negative zone. Generally Bank Nifty has possibility for decline towards 26441-24240 but range is very big, so we need to concentrate at the internal pattern of decline started from high to conclude further move.

For short term, there is no change in outlook, Bank Nifty is in negative zone with 29342-29634 as resistance and 29634 is short term upside breakeven point. There is a possibility of one more decline of minimum 764-1236 points without breaking higher above 29634.

For very short term/Intraday, 29211 is immediate downside breakeven point and Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 29211 for 15 minutes can result in further decline towards 28871 in coming sessions.

Overall, there is a possibility of Complex Correction after 28871, so very volatile and range bound market is expected in coming sessions because of complex pattern.

We need to check pattern again if Bank Nifty breaks and stay above 29634 for 15 minute. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Short term trading strategy is to sell Bank Nifty on every rise whenever getting opportunity as long as Bank Nifty is trading below 29634. 29342-29634 is low risk selling range with stoploss above 29634 expecting decline of minimum 764-1236 points.

For intraday, Bank Nifty can be sold if get in 29500-29634 range using stoploss above 29634 expecting decline below 28871 in coming sessions.

Otherwise, Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 29211 for 15 minute then selling can be done below 29211 but entry level and stoploss will be calculated after breakdown only.  So, I will observe Bank Nifty in live market hours and update accordingly during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast for “Live Updates Subscribers”.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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