Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 29 October 2018 Onward

| October 28, 2018

Bank Nifty opened lower at 24771, decline further after opening by more than 400 points to register day’s low 24353 and finally closed 396 points down at 24421.

Friday, 24860 was immediate breakeven point on upside. Bank Nifty was expected to bounce further towards 25127-25356 if breaks and manage to trade above 24860 continually for 15 minute. Otherwise, Bank Nifty if fails to break above 24860 was expected to fall further towards 24696-24240.

Trading strategy was to buy any suitable call of 01 Nov expiry [which is trading around 60] near 24860 if Bank Nifty breaks and trades above 24860 continuously for 15 minutes using stoploss of 27 expecting bounce towards 25127-25356 in coming days. But Bank Nifty opened at 24771 and declined further till 24353, so our trade was not activated.  Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave inner [4] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 October 2018 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting start of wave [4] of wave (iii).

It seems wave completed from 28388-26555 may be wave (1), wave completed from 26555-27205 may be wave (2), wave completed from 27205-24240 may be wave (3), wave completed from 24240-25915 may be wave (4) and wave (5) may be in progress from 25915.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (5) is placed at 24330-23351 but earlier low is 24240. So, 24240-23351 is the minimum expected target range for completion of wave (5) if wave completed at 25915 is really wave (4).

So, let’s analyze wave (5) started from high 25915 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern/immediate counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 25915 which I am expecting start of wave (5) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 24784 may be wave [i], wave completed at 25356 may be wave [ii] and wave [iii] may be completed at 243523 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [iii] is placed at 24589-24736 which is immediate resistance range on upside and 24736 is the breakeven point on upside and stolposs for any shorts.

Conclusion and Outlook:

Bank Nifty is expected to decline below 24240 towards 24240-23352 in coming days with 24589-24736 as immediate resistance on upside and 24736 as immediate breakeven point. So, Bank Nifty is expected to decline towards 24240-23351 without breaking above 24736.

But Bank Nifty if manage to break and stay above 24736 can bounce further towards 25127-25356. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Again, Bank Nifty is very Volatile, Implied volatility is very high and options are expensive. Options premium may not rise even on 200-300, so trading in options is rewarding only if we see one sided move of 400-500 points. We must keep in this mind while deciding next trade.

So, according to fresh conditions: –

1. Bank Nifty if bounces towards 24589-24736 range then any suitable Put of 01 Nov Expiry (which is trading around 60) can be bought in 24589-24736 range using stoploss of 27 expecting decline towards 24240-23351.

2. But, Bank Nifty if manage to trade and stay above 24736 for 15 minutes then any suitable Call of 01 Nov Expiry (which is trading around 60) can be bought near 24736 using stoploss of 27 expecting bounce towards 25127-25356.

Trade must be initiated after 9:30 AM only (15 minutes after opening). Be quick in booking profits because Option premium is expensive and volatility is high.

These are low risk trading strategy I can suggest in these conditions. Otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

Contact me:

Emailewavinod@gmail.com

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Website: www.ewanalyst.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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