Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 31 May 2019

| May 30, 2019

Bank Nifty opened lower at 31256, registered low 31236 but bounced back by more than 350 points to register day’s high 31619 and finally closed 241 points up at 31537.

Yesterday, 31328-31266 was low risk buying range and bounce towards 31799-32134 was expected in coming sessions 31169 as Trend Reversal Point/Stoploss. Bank Nifty was weak after break below 31169 only.

Bank Nifty bounced from support range 31328-31266 by 291-353 points to register high 31619. Further updates with fresh Support/Breakeven Point/Trailing Stoploss were also sent through WhatsApp Broadcast during live market hours.  Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave (i), (ii), (iii),(iv) may be completed till 28525 and wave (v) may be in progress.

Wave (v) achieved 61% projection after breaking above 31138 whereas next 100% is placed at 32754 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 28525 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move low 28525 which I am expecting start of inner wave (v) of (C or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave [1] may be completed at 29036, wave [2] may be completed at 28922, wave [3] may be completed at 31705, wave [4] may be completed at 30292 and wave [5] may be in progress.

Wave [5] achieved minimum 31705 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 32257 which may or may not be achieved.

Within wave [5], it seems wave [i],[ii],[iii],[iv] may be completed till 31236 and wave [v] may be in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 31778-32113 which is minimum target range for completion of wave [v]. Bank Nifty achieved 31619 till now.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave [v] separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move low 31236 which I am expecting start of inner wave [v] of [5] on the previous chart.

The move looks like a Impulsive Bounce from 31236-31619 followed by corrective (abc) decline from 11619-11385. The corrective decline retraced previous impulse by exactly 61% and Bank Nifty bounced back. Overall conditions are indicating the signs of wave (1) and (2).

So, wave completed at 31619 may be inner wave (1) of (v), corrective wave completed at 31385 may be wave (2) which retraced exactly 6% and wave (3) may be in progress.

There is a sharp bounce 31385-31584 and 38%-61% retracement of this bounce is placed at 31507-31461.

So overall, 31507-31461 is the low risk buying range from where Bank Nifty can bounce for 31778-32113 and 31385 is Pattern Negation Point/Stoploss for Longs. We need to check the pattern again if Bank Nifty breaks below 31385.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty already bounced by 1400 points from major support 30462-29694 and is already broke All Time High 31705.  So, we need to concentrate on internal wave started after 30292 to calculate further outlook.

Intraday/Very short term, Bank Nifty is again positive with 31507-31461 as low risk buying range from where Bank Nifty can bounce for 31778-32113 whereas 31385 is pattern negation point and stoploss for longs. Bank Nifty can bounce from present levels also as wave (3) is known to be sharp and fast.

Bank Nifty if breaks below 31385 then pattern will get negated, so we need to look for fresh pattern in this case.

31169 is still the downside Breakeven Point and any downside trend reversal can be expected after break below 31169 only.

Trading Strategy:  

For Intraday/Very Short Term, Trading strategy is “Buying on Dips”  with 31507-31461 as low risk buying range with 31385 as Pattern Negation Point/Stoploss, whereas 31778-32113 is minimum expected target range on upside. Bank Nifty can bounce from present levels also as wave (3) is known to be sharp and fast.

(For option buyers, any out of money Call of next week can be bought because Bank Nifty needs to bounce faster for wave (3) if we are right at identifying the pattern. Overall, Bank Nifty has to bounce sharply towards 31778-32000 if it has to bounce, otherwise any delay on bounce can prove our pattern wrong)

Confident selling can be done after break below 31169 only for targets 30564-30292. Entry levels and stoploss for selling can be calculated after breakdown only.

Any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be notified during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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