Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 31 December 2018

| December 30, 2018

Bank Nifty again opened gap up at 27048, bounced further to registered day’s high 27213 and finally closed 246 points up at 27125.

Friday, 26964 was immediate breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty was expected to bounce further towards 27239 [which further can extends towards 27369-27603 in coming days] if breaks above immediate breakeven point.

Trading strategy was to buy 27200 Call of 03rd Jan expiry if Bank Nifty breaks above 26964 (even if touches 26965 then any decline towards 26950-26845 can be used to buy call using exact stoploss of 26789 expecting bounce towards 27239 which further can extend towards 27369-27603 in coming days. Bank Nifty opened higher at 27048 bounced further till 27213 to achieve minimum target 27239 without giving chance to buy in 26950-26845 range. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave inner [4] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 October 2018 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting start of wave [4] of wave (iii).

Wave completed from 28388-24240 seems corrective (ABC) type which I marked as wave [4].

From low, its seems wave completed at 25915 may be wave (i), wave completed at 24353 may be wave (ii), wave (iii) may be completed at 27369, wave (iv) may be completed at 26408 and wave (v) may be in progress from 26408.

38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 27603-28341 which is the minimum target range for completion of wave (v). If wave started from 26408 is really wave (v) then it needs to achieve minimum 27603 (38%) for its completion.

Now, let’s analyze the bounce started from low 26408 on separate lowest time frame chart to check immediate move/counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26408 which I am expecting start of wave (v) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 26517 may be wave [1], wave completed at 26460 may be wave [2], wave [3] may be completed at 27239, wave [4] may be completed at 26845 and wave [5] may be in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 27162-27358 whereas 100% is placed at 27676 but earlier high is 27359. So, 27359-27676 is the minimum expected target range for completion of wave [5] of (v) if wave completed at 26408 is really wave (iv).

Within wave [5], it seems wave [i],[ii],[iii] may be completed  till 27213 and wave [iv] 27093 or still in progress.

23% -38% retracement for wave [iv] is placed at 27126-27072 which is the immediate support with 27072 as immediate breakeven point on downside. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below immediate breakeven point 27072 for more than 15 minute can result in further decline towards 26845.

Conclusion and Outlook:

There is no major change in outlook, Bank Nifty still can bounce towards 27369-27676 in coming days as long as trading above immediate breakeven point 27072.

But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below immediate breakeven point 27072 for more than 15 minute can result in further decline towards 26845.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy

Bank Nifty if gets in 27072-27000 range then buy 27200 Call of 3rd Jan Expiry using exact stoploss of 26969 expecting bounce towards 27369-27603 in coming days.

This is only low risk trading strategies I can suggest in such conditions, otherwise- traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behavior based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

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Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 03 December 2018     
  2. Bank Nifty can Decline by 450-700 Points Before 26431
  3. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 15 November 2018 Onward
  4. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 11 October 2018 Onward
  5. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts dated 08 October 2018

                                                           

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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