Fresh Bank Nifty Outlook and Trading Strategy For 22 April 2019 Onward

| April 19, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 30656, registered new all time high 30670 but didn’t sustain at higher level and decline back again by more than 500 points to register  low 30142 and finally closed 307 points down at 30223.

Thursday, Bank Nifty was expected to give a small/big decline [300-500 points] soon either from present level or somewhere around from immediate resistance range 30590-30774 without breaking higher above 30774.

Trading strategy was to buy Bank Nifty 30700 Put of 18th April expiry in 30670-30720 range using exact stoploss of 30789 expecting decline of 300-500 points decline in coming days. Bank Nifty registered high 30670 and declined back again by more than 500 points to register low 30142 whereas 30700 put of 18th April expiry bounced from 108-481 and finally closed at 464.  Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank for 25 February 2019 onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 30648.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29040 which is short/Medium term breakeven point and we can think of any bigger reversal after breaking below 29040 only.

Now, let’s analyze the move started after 30648 on separate lowest time frame chart to check next immediate move.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from new all time high 30648.

The whole decline looks like a Complex Correction with first (abc) cycle completed from 30648-29814, Wave (X) may be completed from 29720-30232 and 2nd (abc) cycle may be completed at 29640.

From low 29640, wave completed from 29640-30670 seems an impulse but it is not confirm at present which wave is in progress, it may be wave (A) or (C).

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from new all time high 30670 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its inner waves/counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from new all time high 30670.

It seems wave (a or 1) may be completed at 30312, wave (b or 2) may be completed at 30471 and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 30471.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave (1) may be completed at 30356, wave (2) may be completed at 30421 and wave (3) may be completed at 30142 or still in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 30267 which is immediate resistance/breakeven point on upside. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30267 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 30471-30670.

Otherwise, Bank Nifty has possibility to decline further below 30142 may be towards 30097-30019.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty entered and bounced from short/medium term support range 29665-29040. But 29640-29040 is still short/medium term support with 29040 as short/medium term breakeven point on downside. Any bigger reversal can be expected after break below 29040 only.

For Intraday/very short term, 30267 is immediate resistance/breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30267 for 15 minute can result in further bounce towards 30471-30670.

Otherwise, Bank Nifty has possibility to decline further below 30142 may be towards 30097-30019.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

  1. Sell Bank Nifty in 30267-30320 range using exact stoploss of 30359 expecting further decline below 30142 towards 30097-30019 in coming sessions.

 

  1. But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 30267 by more than 15 minute then further bounce towards 30471-30670 can be expected but entry levels and stoploss for buying can be calculated after breakout only, so I am not suggesting any buying in advance. Trader can plan their own trade as per the conditions mentioned above.

These are only low risk trading strategies I can suggest in such conditions. Otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

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Also Read,

  1. Further Elliott Wave Updates of Bank Nifty for 11 March 2019 Onward
  2. Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts dated 25 February 2019
  3. Bank Nifty Can Decline Towards 26923 Very Soon
  4. Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 31 December 2018
  5. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 03 December 2018

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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