Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for 13 May 2019

| May 12, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 28927, registered day’s low 28900 and bounced back again by more than 250 points to registered day’s high 29202 followed by declined till 28962 and finally closed 155 points up at 29040.

Friday, 29032-29185 was immediate resistance range with 29185 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to bounce towards 29712-29835 if breaks and stay above 29185 for 15 minute. Otherwise, further decline towards 28756-28457 was possible.

No particular trade was suggested in the report. I had advised 29185-29294 as fresh resistance range in market hour (by whatsapp) from where we can expect 400-700 points decline. Bank Nifty declined from exact 29185-29294 range by more than 250 points but it happened just 20 minute before closing, so I didn’t suggest any trade. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 30670.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29054 which is already broken, Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone and warning cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks.

Now,  we need to analyze the move started after 30670 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 30670.

It seems wave completed from 30670-29435 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 29435-30121 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 30121.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29294. So, 29294 is short/medium term breakeven point on upside. We can think of any major upside reversal after break above 29294 only.

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave (C or 3) on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and immediate important levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 30121 which I am expecting start wave (C or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave [1] may be completed at 29537, wave [2] may be completed at 29835, wave [3] may be completed at 28784 and wave [4] or [5] may be in progress. 38% retracement of wave [3] is placed at 29185 and is already broken once.

If wave [4] is already completed at 29202 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 28691-2837 which is the minimum projection for completion of wave [5]. 100% projection is placed at 27865.

29202 (end of wave [4]) is fresh immediate resistance/upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks above 29202 for more than 15 minutes can bounce further towards 29712-29835. Otherwise, one more decline towards 28691-28375 is possible in coming sessions.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty broke short/medium term downside breakeven point after breaking below 29054 and entered in medium term negative zone. Bank Nifty is warning cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks and 29202-29294 is fresh upside resistance. Any upside reversal can be expected after break above 29294 only. We need to look at internal pattern to decide trades.

For Intraday/very short term, 29202-29294 is immediate resistance range with 29294 as short/Medium term upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 29294 for more than 15 minutes then further bounce towards 29712-29835 can be expected. Otherwise, one more decline towards 28691-28375 is possible in coming sessions.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Major support 29054 is broken and Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone, so cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 are there in coming days/weeks. So, main trading preference would by selling on every 23%-38% rise. 29202-29294 is current resistance range as of now.

Selling can be done in 29202-29294 range or if we see the formation of any other bearish internal pattern. I will send alert during market hours through whatsapp if find any change in wave counts or any confident trading opportunity based on internal wave patterns.

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DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

    

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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